OBITUARIES - 5TH PLACE - COMMISH

WHAT IF HE SHOT ME IN THE FACE? 7-6

Before I even get into this, I have to address the laughably bad take Tieg had regarding my team. I was lamenting my loss to Ken and Tieg decided to chime in. His exact quote was that “you’re team isn’t balanced” - which somehow explained why I lost and definitely explained why Ken scored 143 vs. me and 95 the following week. Definitely. So let’s examine it – was my team balanced?

I currently have QB5, RB5, RB15, WR10, WR11, TE3 and the #2 defense. Sounds pretty balanced to me. For comparison:

Tieg has QB17, RB14, RB3, WR5, WR17, TE12 and the #3 defense. Not quite as balanced as my team if you ask me.

Ken has QB10, RB4, RB18, WR1 (injured), WR21, TE5 and the #8 defense. Pretty sure my team is more balanced than that.

Just a weird and totally incorrect statement to make.

What Went Right?:

Okay now we can get into it.

I made the playoffs, so that went right. Other than that I guess the major thing that went right was the first 6 weeks of the season. During the first 6 weeks, I had a record of 4-2 and my team scored a lot of points. But what is a "lot"? On any given week, the average team scored 113 fantasy points in our league. During the first 6 weeks, my team averaged 127 points per game. We put up 106 or more in all but 1 of those games and scored 132 or more in 4 of the 6. That is a "lot" of points.

Conversely, my opponents weren’t scoring many points against me (which was lucky). The league average (per week) in points against was also 113. During the first 6 weeks, my opponents averaged 105 against me. So not only was I outscoring the league average by 14 points per week, my opponents scored 8 fewer points per week than the league average. As I mentioned above, this led to a 4-2 record and a playoff run. The first 6 weeks went very well.

What Went Wrong?:

The number one thing that went wrong was Dalvin Cook. He scored nearly 80 points during the first 4 weeks of the season before going down with an ACL injury (was a top 5 RB at the time). The RB combo of him and Melvin Gordon was a serious threat and I was pretty confident in my team before that happened. Sadly he got injured and I was never able to fully replace him.

The other misfortune was the number of points scored against me to end the year. Over my last 4 games – including my first round playoff loss – my opponents scored 553 points against me. For comparison, over Tieg’s last 4 games – NOT including a playoff game (burn) – his opponents scored 547 points.

Tieg’s misfortune aside, that’s A LOT of points against. It’s 138 points per game against to be exact. Remember how I said the league average in points against was 113? My opponents averaged 25 more per game than that. From Weeks 11 through 14, my opponents put up 127, 163, 120 and 143. I went 1-3 during that span.

That last one is the killer – 143. Ken put up one hundred and forty fucking three points in our playoff matchup. On my birthday no less. Fuck you ken.

Best Roster Move:

Drafting Dalvin Cook in the 4th round was a nice move. I’m pretty sure someone (won’t name names) actually asked “who is that?” when I picked him. Amateur Hour and yet somehow I never win this league. Fuck my life. Anyways this didn’t end well, but it was a savvy move nonetheless.

Zach Ertz in the 10th round was a better move. Even though he’s missed two games with injury, he’s still TE3 behind Gronk and Kelce. He’s got 63 catches for 719 yards and 8 TDs on the year.

Cam Newton in the 8th round was good. He’s QB5 and has had some big weeks.

Picking up the Ravens D in free agency after Week 2 was also solid. They’re the #2 defense in fantasy and had 8 games with 12 or more points.

On Weds, Oct 11 I added Jerick McKinnon off waivers for $33 fake American dollars. He would go on to score 25, 10, 26, 8, 11, 8, and 16 points during the regular season. I never really could replace Cook, but came close with McKinnon.

Worst Roster Move:

Drafting Isaiah Crowell in the 3rd round was a piss poor move by me. He was a popular sleeper pick, but there was one thought that never occurred to me when drafting him. “Would I ever feel comfortable starting a Browns RB?” The answer to that was no and I only started Crowell maybe 5-6 times all year. Meanwhile I passed on Zeke, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins to name a few guys. I'm an idiot.

I picked up Jamaal Williams right before the Week 5 games. He went on to score .3 points…. I then dropped Jamaal Williams the next week. Four weeks passed, but Williams eventually became the Packers starting RB. Since Week 9, he’s scored 10 or more points in all but one game and has 26 or more in 3 of his last 4. Giving up on him too early was dumb.

Another bad miss: I drafted Evan Engram in the last round of our draft. I pay attention to the NFL Draft, so I knew what this guy was capable of. Unfortunately, I dropped him before a game was even played. I already had Ertz and was getting trigger happy with my roster. Engram is currently TE4 and is a big reason why Dylan made the playoffs. Idiot Commish.

Defining Moment:

When Ken shit the bed in the second round of the playoffs…… Wait what? Allow me to explain. Not sure if you heard, but Ken put up 143 points against me in round 1 of the playoffs. That really sucks. Ken only scored more points than that twice all year (144 and 147) and it hadn’t happened since Week 6. That’s not the worst part, the worst part is that he turned around and put up 95 points the next week – nearly FIFTY fewer points.  

Antonio Brown put up 32 against me, but 3 the next week. Leonard Fournette put up 28 against me, but didn’t play the next week. Alex Collins put up 30 against me, but just 10 the next week. Unbelievable.

And this isn’t the first time this happened to me this year. It actually happened during every single one of my losses. For example: Robby D put up 70 in week 1, but 120 against me in Week 2. Tieg put up 137 against me in Week 5, but 120 in Week 6. Keetz put up 113/114 in Weeks 6/8, but scored 133 against me in Week 7. Guy put up 95 against me in Week 9, but 78 in Week 10. Robby D put up 127 against me in Week 11, but 98 the following week. Lamone put up 163 against me in Week 12, but 94 in Week 13. That's an absurd trend that pretty much defined my season. 

Pre-Season Prediction: 

I predict that I’ll finish the season at 5-8 and finish outside of the playoffs. Like I said before, my team just doesn’t have an X-Factor. Or a FACTOR BACK as Merryl Hodge likes to say. I have a lot of trendy/upside picks that could just totally fall flat and my Dalvin Cook pick was certainly a reach. I waited until the 8th round to pick a QB or a TE and I’ll likely have a disadvantage at those positions every week. Overall my team is solid, but underwhelming.

Not good Commish, not good. 3-3 thus far.

Non-Football Reference:

“Pretty good was in fact pretty bad.”

That’s from a poem by Charles Osgood entitled “Pretty Good”. The morale of the story is that while something can be “pretty good”, that isn’t always a positive thing. Pretty good can be just average. Pretty good can actually be below average. In some cases, pretty good is in fact pretty bad.

This is like every season for me in this league. I’ve finished with a 7-6 regular season record FOUR YEARS IN A ROW. I shit you not, I've finished 7-6 in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. That’s a “pretty good” record. It gets me in the playoffs every year and technically gives me a shot at the title. Based on the results, however, "pretty good" is actually “not good enough”. It’s certainly not good enough to win a title. It's not even good enough to make the title game apparently. My team is always good enough to compete, but somehow never good enough to contend. Pretty good is in fact pretty bad. (Also have horrible matchup luck, see above.)

Wrap It Up:

Not much to say here. Another year, another “pretty good” season and another early playoff exit. It’s the same shit every year. Déjà vu all over again. There isn’t much I can do going forward, just keep on keeping on.

That being said, is it too much to ask that I catch a few breaks and win this league one year? It’s actually baffling that I haven’t won it yet. I put 1,000 times more time/effort into this league than anyone else (approximately). I study the NFL draft, I listen to podcasts, I play in multiple leagues, etc etc. Is it really too much to ask that I get one title? JUST ONE?

I’ve made the playoffs in 6 of the 7 years we’ve had this league. 7 of 8 if you include the pre-live-draft era when Dylan won. It’s not like I don’t even give myself a chance, I just get fucked. And not in the way normal people like to get fucked LLOYD! In the way that people like you like to get…..FUCKED.

Over my last 4 playoff matchups, I’ve been defeated when my opponents scored 143, 120, 102 and 174 against me. That’s a total of 539 points, or 135 per game. When I make the playoffs, my opponents AVERAGE 135 against me. You all saw the averages above, that just doesn't make sense. 

Maybe that's just my lot in life, maybe the Commish isn't supposed to win. Maybe all of these writeups build up bad karma. Maybe everyone just brings their A-Game against the Commish. Either way, it's frustrating as hell. Fuck you all, Commish out.