OBITUARIES - 9TH PLACE - KEV
JacksON Jacks-OFF: 3-10
What Went Right?:
Kev hasn’t quit this league yet…… that’s a positive. Anything else?
How about: Kev didn’t hurt his back/ribs on draft weekend?
Still not very good. We also can’t definitively prove that he did not hurt his back since he wasn’t with us on draft weekend. He may have hurt himself dancing at the wedding he went to. WE WILL NEVER KNOW.
Okay let’s look at actual football items. The #1 thing that went right was LeSean McCoy. Kev’s first round pick is currently RB7 and has scored 218 points on the year. That’s an average of 18 per game, which is the 22nd best among ALL players. If you take out QBs, he’s the 8th highest scorer among RB/WR/TEs. In terms of actual football stats, McCoy has 851 rushing yards and 304 receiving yards to go along with 5 touchdowns. Overall he ranks 10th in all-purpose yards for the entire NFL.
Not only did McCoy have a good year - he was one of the few first round picks who WASN’T a bust. Out of the 10 players selected in our first round, McCoy has the 4th highest point total behind Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Melvin Gordon (he’s only about 10 behind Gordon). That’s might be more of a reflection on how bad this year was than how good McCoy was, but the fact remains. Drafting LeSean McCoy this year was a great thing for Kev.
What Went Wrong?:
Points against. That’s all you need to know. Obviously Kev had the most points scored against him. Why not? The number is astronomically high too – 1,657 through 13 weeks. That’s an average of 127 points per week against, which is hard to believe even though I’m looking right at it. Here are some facts to show you how nuts this is.
Fact: Kev had 95 more points against than the second highest person (Guy). That’s 7 points per week.
Fact: Kev had 187 more points against than the 6th highest (my team). That’s 14 points per week.
Fact: Kev had more points against than our highest scoring team scored during the year. Wait what?
Yes, that happened. Kev led the league in points against with 1,657. Tieg led the league in points scored with 1,619. That doesn’t even seem possible.
Fact: Through 13 weeks, NOT ONE of Kev’s opponents scored fewer than 109.5 points. NOT ONE!!!!!!!
Fact: 10 of Keetz’ 13 opponents scored fewer than that 109.5. One of them scored 110, so 11 of 13 were at 110 or fewer.
Fact: Speaking of Keetz, he only had 1,231 points scored against him this year. That is an average of 94 per week, or THIRTY THREE points fewer per week than Kev. The 1,231 is a total of 426 points fewer across the whole season.
Live look at Kev every week when he checked his score....
Best Roster Move:
I’ll start with one of his WRs – Jarvis Landry. Kev took Jarvis Landry in the 5th round of our draft and he has been reaping the rewards all year. Through thirteen weeks, Landry is WR12 and ranks 3rd in receptions, 23rd in receiving yards and is tied for 14th in TD catches among all players.
Taking this further, let’s see how he performed relative to his draft position. For this I’ll take a page out of Matthew Berry’s torah and do a blind resume:
WR1: 80 catches, 699 yards, 6 TDs, 148 fantasy points
WR2: 75 catches, 875 yards, 3 TDs, 145 fantasy points
Who would you rather have? Pretty much a tie right? Wrong. WR1 is Jarvis Landry, the 46th player taken in our draft. WR2 on the other hand, is Michael Thomas – the 19th player taken in our draft (2nd round). Based on the above, Kev turned a 5th round pick into a 2nd round pick.
Taking it even further…..Landry was the 46th player and 20th WR taken in the draft. He’s currently the 32nd highest scoring player (non-QBs) and the 12th highest scoring WR. Sounds like pretty good ROI to me - nice pick by Kev.
Tevin Coleman was another move I didn’t like on draft day…….and another move that turned out great. After being taken in the 7th round as the #25th RB, Tevin Coleman is RB14 through 13 weeks. He’s rushed for 560 yards while taking 21 receptions for 245 yards (7 total TDs). In terms of fantasy points, he’s scored 10 or more points in 9 games and 8 or more in all but 1 game. While no one could have predicted that Devonta Freeman would be a huge bust and miss three games, the results are what they are. Good pick by Kev.
Worst Roster Move:
Drafting Aaron Rodgers in the second round was a questionable move – sorry Kev. It was bad then and it was especially bad in hindsight.
First things first – drafting a QB high is never advisable. There are plenty of decent QBs available later on. If you look at the top 6 teams in our league (playoff teams), not one of them took a QB higher than the 4th round. Robby D and Lamone both took their QBs in the 4th round, while the other playoff teams took their QBs in the 5th round (Ken), 8th round (Commish), and 10th round (Dylan/Keetz).
Adding on to that: Lamone probably shouldn’t have made the playoffs over Tieg, so you COULD say that only 1 deserving* playoff team picked their QB before the 5th round. That was Rob D, but there are notable exceptions there as well. First he has the human cheat code LeVeon Bell. Second, he cheated to get Kelce. All in all the Brees pick almost doesn’t count - Rob D made the playoffs DESPITE Drew Brees, not BECAUSE of him.
Going further, let’s look at the final rankings. The first five QBs taken in our draft were Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan and Russel Wilson. They rank 29th, 3rd, 7th, 15th and 1st in our QB rankings. Out of the first 4, only one of them is a top 5 QB. Those results just aren’t worth it for how high you have to pick them. When you draft a QB high you’re basically picking them at their ceiling – there’s no room for ROI. Paying 100 dollars for something that is worth 100 dollars doesn’t move the needle. Paying 50 dollars for something worth 100 dollars does. For example: Alex Smith, Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins are all top 5 QBs – not one of them was taken higher than the 10th round and Smith/Wentz weren’t even drafted…… That’s pennies on the dollar.
Obviously the Rodgers injury makes this look especially bad, but the point remains. Taking a QB that early and passing up on guys like Gronk, Jordan Howard, Brandin Cooks and Leonard Fournette was a bad move.
Defining Moment:
When Aaron Rodgers got injured. Rodgers got injured in the first quarter of Kev’s Week 6 matchup and it all went downhill from there. Kev had a 2-3 record going into his Week 6 matchup. Things were looking good, Rodgers had been performing well and Kev was right in the hunt (Rodgers was a top 5 QB, which kinda trashes my argument above, but moving on). Unfortunately Kev got .6 points from Rodgers and he lost by 45 points.
Including that game, Kev went 1-7 through the last 8 weeks of the season. Even though his team performed admirably, they were crushed like the Polish Army in 1939. In those 8 weeks his opponents scored 118, 120, 162, 151, 117, 141, 109 and 110 points. That doesn’t have much to do with Aaron Rodgers, but there’s no denying one thing: when Aaron Rodgers went down, Kev’s season went down with it.
Pre-Season Prediction: I hate to be a dick, but this is the worst draft of anyone in our league. I really like you Kev and you’re my boy and everything, but this was not your best work. And for that reason, I am out.
I used up all my negativity, so I’ll end with the prediction – 4-9 and missed the playoffs. Kev will probably smoke me in our week 1 matchup because KARMA, but I can’t see this team winning more than 4-5 games with the roster as it currently stands.
Spot on by the Commish, 2-0 thus far shooter.
Non-Football Reference:
“There is no such thing as bad luck. There is luck, or no luck at all.”
I think I’m just going to go with “Applicable Quote” for these since I’m in a quote mood right now. Anyways that’s a quote from the book “Distilled Thoughts”, written by Jeffrey Fry. It’s not so much a book as it is a collection of quotes, but I digress. It’s pretty fitting for Kev because he’s the most devoid-of-luck person I’ve ever seen in fantasy football. If you don’t believe me, refer back to the points against rant I went on. I don’t know what Kev did in a past life, but he pretty much has no luck in fantasy football.
Wrap It Up:
I wonder if Kev is suffering from the same problem as Guy – not enough focus on the league. From what I recall he’s been working full time while getting through grad school, which can’t be easy. Maybe he doesn’t have enough time to research thoroughly before/during the year. On a semi-related note: Kev was the only person in the league to not make an appearance on draft day – digital or in person. He had a wedding Saturday, but that kinda shows your level of dedication in a nut-shell. Kev also wasn’t very active this year – he made just 12 add/drops in 13 weeks.
Like with Guy, I hope Kev comes back next year with a renewed focus. Start the draft prep earlier and make sure to keep active on waivers throughout the season. Kev has now missed the playoffs in three straight years, so he’ll look to break that trend in 2018.
