OBITUARIES - 8TH PLACE - FRADER
THE STAR OF LARRY DAVID JOHNSON: 4-9
What Went Right?:
As with all non-playoff teams it’s hard to identify things that “went well” during the season. When you lose 69% of your games (9/13), it is as they say….NOT nice. That being said, there are a few things to like.
His record over the last 8 weeks of the season comes to mind first. It’s easy to forget, but Frader started out the season 0-5. It was almost a mortal lock that he’d become the Gabriel twice in a row…..only it wasn’t. Over the last 8 weeks Frader refocused, made some free agent acquisitions and went 4-4 to end the year. Three of those 4 wins came against non-playoff teams (Guy, Kev, Tieg), but I don’t care. If you go 4-4 over an 8 week stretch that’s pretty good in my book. Also, two of those wins came in the last 3 weeks of the season when Frader had a 2-8 record. It would have been easy for him to tank on the season and give up, but give credit where credit is due. In those two wins he a) helped knock Tieg out of the playoffs and b) beat Dylan’s third place squad. Overall he should be proud of the way he finished.
The second is Lamar Miller’s performance. Miller was widely accepted as a disappointment in 2016 (of course on my team) and was a pariah on draft day. No one wanted him on their team. It's like when the bill comes at a group dinner and no one wants to pick it up. Everyone awkwardly dances around it until someone begrudgingly picks it up or everyone splits it. That's what Lamar Miller was like this year. Whenever someone's pick came around, they awkwardly danced around the subject before someone begrudgingly picks him up.
That reminds me of the "Terrorist Attack" episode of Curb where Larry David experiences this. He talks about how this one guy always dodges the bill at dinner and Larry has to pay. The guy's "move" is to head for the bathroom when the check comes, but Larry knows he's gonna do it.
Kind of a reach, but had to force a Curb reference in. Anways Miller fell to the last pick in the 4th round, nearly a full round lower than his ADP. Frader took him in that slot and it worked out great. Miller ranks as RB10 through 13 weeks (18th RB taken) and has 1,000 total yards plus 6 TDs. He’s been Frader’s one constant at RB this year and helped him stay afloat.
What Went Wrong?:
Obviously losing David Johnson was the worst thing to happen to Frader this year. All Frader had to show for the #1 pick was three quarters of football and 12 fantasy points. For comparison, the #2 pick LeVeon Bell has scored 286 fantasy points. Ipso facto, Frader has lost 274 fantasy points due to David Johnson’s injury.
How do you think that quantifies in terms of wins? Would Frader have made the playoffs if David Johnson was healthy? Let’s look at the 4 games immediately after the injury - an 0-4 stretch. This is revisionist history, but could Frader have won those games if he had DJ?
Week 2: Frader lost this game by 18 points (Tieg). He started Jonathan Stewart as his RB2 and got 7 points. Take away the 7 and he lost by 25. The Cardinals played the Colts and their 29th ranked defense that week. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say DJ puts up 30 and gets Frader the win there. Now he’d be 5-8 rather than 4-9.
Week 3: Frader lost by 16, but got 9 from Jonathan Stewart. Take away the 9 and its 25 again. As with Week 2, I don’t think it’s crazy to say DJ could have scored 25-30 points. The Cardinals played Dallas that week who also doesn’t have a great defense (21st in yards allowed). Now he’s 6-7 rather than 4-9.
Week 4: Frader lost to my team by 3.7 points in Week 4. His RB2 and FLEX of Chris Thompson and Rishard Matthews scored 2.4 and 6.4 points respectively. Call me crazy, but I believe Johnson would have scored 3.8 more points than either of those two guys. If Frader wins that game and the other two then he’s 7-6 not 4-9.
Week 5: Frader got crushed by Kenny Peabs who put up 146.
In this league you need at least 6 wins to make the playoffs and 7 usually does it. If David Johnson is worth 3 wins over the course of the regular season, then Frader could have easily made the playoffs. Unfortunately for him, we’ll never know….
Best Roster Move:
Drafting Russel Wilson with the last pick in the 6th round was definitely Frader’s best move. Wilson was a staple of Frader’s lineup the entire year and currently has the most points of ANY player in fantasy football (our scoring). He has 27 more points than the next closest player (Alex Smith) and 30 more points than our Lord and Savior TB12. Wilson has been on a heater lately, throwing SEVENTY SEVEN STRAIGHT SEVENS!!!
And by seventy seven straight sevens I mean look at his last 7 game scores: 32, 43, 26, 23, 35, 26 and 28. Those are unreal numbers and this was a great pick by JayFray.
Frader also made some nice pickups later in the year. First, he picked up Samaje Perine after Week 11. Perine scored 22 and 11 points in the two games since. Second, he grabbed Nelson Agholor on October 18th. Since then, Agholor has scored 13, 4, 5, 0, 17 and 26 points. Jermaine Kearse was another great pickup and almost ruined my season. Frader picked him up on Sunday December 3rd and started him against me in Week 13. Kearse scored 22 points that week.
Worst Roster Move:
I’ll just bullet point these to move this along:
- Not trading Carson Wentz for a FLEX was a bonehead move by Frader. You have a top 5 QB rotting on your bench and you got nothing out of him? I made at least 5 trade offers and I’m not the only team who needed a QB upgrade this year (Dylan, me, Tieg, Kev come to mind). You gotta use your assets, especially when you start the year 0-5. And before you say anything, I will say that it is possible to trade QBs. In another league I traded Kirk Cousins for Adam Thielen straight up after Week 5. Yes that was lucky as hell, but it happened. Both teams involved made the playoffs.
- Frader drafted Latavius Murray with the last pick in the 12th round. Frader then dropped him after one week and he sat on waivers until Week 5. Frader did not bid on him. Since Week 5, Murray has scored 122 fantasy points and scored 5 TDs. Through 8 games that’s an average of 15 fantasy points per game and a TD just every other week. For an RB starved team this was a poor decision.
- Taking Jordan Reed with the first pick in the 5th round was a horrible no good very bad move by Frader. For starters, Reed was injured coming into the year and has missed at least 7 games. The injury risk was huge. The worst part though……. The worst part is the list of TEs he took Reed ahead of. In no particular order: Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Jimmy Graham, Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph and Evan Engram. Reed is currently ranked as TE31 and has 1 single game with over 8 points. Prettayyyyy prettayyyyyy pretttayyy brutal.
- Amari Cooper sucks. That is all.
Defining Moment:
I’ll go with a cheapie here: when David Johnson went down. It would have been one thing if David Johnson was out for a few weeks, but he was out for the entire year. That was the defining moment. Losing the #1 overall pick for the season is nearly impossible to come back from and Frader was unable to do so. For reference, I’m in 5 leagues. Out of the 5 teams that drafted DJ, only 1 made the playoffs. The one exception was mainly because of Alvin Kamara (full PPR league). Long story short, DJ’s injury was a death sentence this year.
Pre-Season Prediction: As for a prediction, I’ll say Frader goes 7-6 and makes the playoffs, but loses in the first round. I refuse to believe we’re gonna have another “Gabriel to Champion” story this year after Lamone did it last year. I also refuse to believe that David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper will stay healthy the whole year. Frader’s team is pretty top-heavy and if anything happens to those guys he’s in a lot of trouble. The rest of his team is held together by yarmulke clips (yes, my sister just married a Jewish guy).
I was wrong on this one due to DJ: 2-1 thus far. Couldn’t have predicted that, BUT I did correctly say the rest of Frader’s team was kinda poor. Whatever helps you sleep at night Commish.
Non-Football Reference:
“It Was Over Before It Even Began”
That’s the name of a song by Stephane Huguenin and it’s on the soundtrack of the Spanish TV Show “Velvet”. Never seen the show, but the song is pretty good and of course, very fitting for Frader’s season. I don’t think I need to go further.
Wrap It Up:
Frader has now missed the playoffs 2 years in a row, while earning the Gabriel in one of those years. Over the last two seasons, his record is 7-19. Sounds like the 49ers or something - get it, San Fransisco Forty-Fraders.....booyaaa. Anyways this year was more about bad luck and the DJ injury than anything else. I think Frader will bounce back next year and be in playoff contention.
