2017 George W. Bush League Draft Recaps - 8th Pick
PICK:
8th OVERALL
TEAM:
WHAT IF HE SHOT ME IN THE FACE? Owned by your honorable and just Commissioner.
TOP 5:
My first five picks were all RBs and WRs as I tried to build a good starting lineup. I selected Melvin Gordon, AJ Green, Isaiah Crowell, Dalvin Cook and Larry Fitzgerald.
I had my pick of the second tier RBs and decided to go with Gordon. His offensive line stinks, but he has a good QB and should see a big workload. Despite missing 3 games he finished as RB8 last year. AJ Green in the second round is a steal in my book and was the #5 WR on my board. The only concern with him would be injuries, but that can be said for anyone. I really like the Larry Fitzgerald pick and at #48 I think that was another steal. Guess who led the NFL in receptions last year? Larry Fitzgerald.
The other two picks are ones I’m very uncomfortable with. I chose Isaiah Crowell in the 3rd after deciding to buy in on the hype. He’s got a good offensive line and a rookie QB, so I went for volume here. He did finish as a top 15 back last year so I’d be happy with that. Dalvin Cook was another risky pick, but for different reasons. Namely that he’s a rookie and their offense isn’t very good. The 2017 second round pick has looked good in pre-season, but Latavius Murray is lurking like Mike Tolbert and the Vikings offensive line is worse than the Chargers’ (see: Melvin Gordon above). If one of these two guys ends up being a consistent starter I’ll be happy.
NEXT 5:
I used the middle rounds to build some FLEX depth and address the QB/TE positions. All of these guys are high upside picks that could pay huge dividends……or be dropped from my team come week 5. I’ll start with the QB and TE….
Cam Newton at #73 could be a huge steal (I'll be saying that a lot here). Although he sucked last year, Cam finished as QB1 the year before and led many teams to championships. Believe me, I was a victim of that 45 point Caleb’s Bukake in one league. If he finishes somewhere in between his 2016 and 2015 performances I’d be okay with that. Derek Carr and Mariota went in the same round, so they’ll be good benchmarks for his performance.
As for TE………meh. Just meh. Zach Ertz has all the potential in the world, but he never seems to put it together. I’m pretty sure he was freely available on waivers last year in some leagues and I have a feeling TE will be a problem for me all year. I hate pickin tight ends that's my fuckin problem....
As for flex depth - I took Allen Robinson in the 6th, Rob Kelley in the 7th and Devante Parker in the 9th. Allen Robinson is a top 15 WR in terms of talent, but has the worst QB in the league. I’m literally expecting nothing out of him, but I wanted to take a shot. Rob Kelley in the 7th is a pretty good pick I’d say – considering the fact he’s a starting running back on a good offense. Let’s hope he takes the next step in year 2. Devante Parker was another big upside pick. He was a 1st round pick 3 years ago and while he’s shown flashes, he hasn’t consistently produced. I’m hoping that’ll change with Jay Cutler, a guy who likes to throw the ball down the field (reports have been positive thus far).
LAST 5:
The final five picks of my draft went as follows: Chiefs D/ST, Donte Moncrief, Derrick Henry, Dan Bailey and Evan Engram. Any pick after the 10th round is a dart throw, so let’s throw some darts:
- Chiefs D should be a top 8 unit at the very least. They have a good front 7, one of the best safeties in the league (Eric Berry) and a rising star at corner (Marcus Peters). They start off against the Pats which sucks, but they get to play Denver’s offense twice. I took Dan Bailey for my kicker which should be solid. I’m expecting a top 5 year out of him.
- Donte Moncrief could be another steal. If Andrew Luck comes back without missing too much time – and actually stays healthy – Moncrief could find his way into my starting lineup. He scored 7 touchdowns in just 8 games last year which is enticing.
- Evan Engram was a first round pick in the 2017 draft and could have a big year at TE for the Giants. If nothing else I hope he could spell Ertz in a bad matchup/bye week.
- Derrick Henry was a total lottery ticket pick and unless something happens to DeMarco Murray he probably won’t be startable. Still, not a bad lottery pick in the 13th round. I actually dropped him for Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the Bucs current starting RB.
STRENGTH:
I’d have to say my FLEX depth is the strength of my team….for now at least. As it stands I have 5 starting running backs when you factor in Gordon, Crowell, Cook, Kelley and Jacquizz. I have two good starting receivers in AJ/Larry and I have three bench WRs who could absolutely explode. When you look strictly at FLEX options for my team I have Cook, Kelley, ARob, Parker and Moncrief. If any of those guys break out I could be in good shape.
WEAKNESS:
QB and TE are definitely my weakness as I did not get a top 5 guy at either position. Ultimately I just refused to reach for one and the draft did not play out in my favor there. Lamone took TB12 right before me in the 4th and snatched Jimmy Graham in front of me one round later. In the 7th round Tieg grabbed Tyler Eifert and a round later scooped up Derek Carr in my face.
Hindsight is 20/20 but all four of those guys got snatched 1-2 picks before me. Overall I have very little faith in Cam or Ertz and I bet at least one of them will be a total bust.
DRAFT GRADE, PREDICTION AND FINAL NOTES:
The 8th pick is arguably the worst pick to have in this year’s draft. You miss out on the 3 top tier RBs (DJ, LB, LM) and the 4 top tier WRs (AB, JJ, OB, ME). Aside from that, you don’t even get a true “wrap-around” pick. No matter what you have to wait at least 4 picks between your next selection and a lot can happen in that time. With that - the 9 and 10 teams generally reach for specialty positions (re: QB/TE). They know they don’t pick for a while, so they reach and make sure they don’t miss “the run”. This happened to me with BOTH QB and TE, which was incredibly frustrating. Oh well, picking 8th is actually better than I normally get in this league. With that, I’ll get into the grade/prediction.
I’ll give myself a B- for this draft - probably an 81 out of 100. Although I have some good depth and a ton of up-side/lottery ticket guys, a lot of my team could end up as busts. Melvin Gordon could regress, Crowell is on the Browns, AJ Green is coming off a bad hamstring injury and Cam Newton had rotator cuff surgery this off-season. While I do like the depth, I just don’t have many true difference makers or guys I can confidently rely on.
I predict that I’ll finish the season at 5-8 and finish outside of the playoffs. Like I said before, my team just doesn’t have an X-Factor. Or a FACTOR BACK as Merryl Hodge likes to say. I have a lot of trendy/upside picks that could just totally fall flat and my Dalvin Cook pick was certainly a reach. I waited until the 8th round to pick a QB or a TE and I’ll likely have a disadvantage at those positions every week. Overall my team is solid, but underwhelming.
