2017 George W. Bush Draft Recap - 7th Pick

PICK:

7th OVERALL

TEAM:

MIXONS HERE HYDE UR GURLEY owned and managed by Jon Keetz.

TOP 5:

Keetz took a pretty straightforward approach to the first portion of the draft and selected three wide-outs and two backs with his first five picks. In order of draft position he went Mike Evans, Todd Gurley, Keenan Allen, Carlos Hyde and Demaryius Thomas. I’ll start with the #1 pick and then break up the next four into RBs vs WRs.

Mike Evans was on Keetz’ team last year and Keetz joins Guy as the only two people to use their first round pick on someone they owned last year (Guy took Odell #1 in 2016, Keetz took Evans in the third round last year). Evans is an absolute beast and should once again see plenty of targets from sittin on a corner in Jameis Winston Tampa Florida (if Big Cat doesn’t do those NFL recaps again this year I will be pissed). Evans was #2 in the NFL in targets last year and accumulated 171 through 16 games. He was targeted 17 times in TWO separate games and ended 2016 with 96 catches for 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. I expect more of the same this year (along with some fierce run-blocking......)

The two WRs Keetz took in rounds 1-5 were Keenan Allen and Demaryius Thomas. Everyone knows the story with Allen – top 15 WR potential with an injury history longer than Guy’s beard. While some people steered clear, I think that was a mistake. I think this is the year Allen stays healthy and produces big numbers. Demaryius Thomas is another story and has been frustrating in his own ways during recent years. First, he seems to drop a ton of passes - he had the 6th most drops last year. Second, he plays with a bad QB which makes his potential floor pretty low. IRREGARDLESS RAY - he’s finished as a top 20 WR with 1,000 yards receiving each of the last five yeahhss ked (Ray Donovan shoutout?). Still, you could do MUCH worse for a 3rd WR.  

Keet’z RB’s are very similar to his receivers in that they both have talent, but come with question marks. Todd Gurley is a good running back on a bad team – which is always scary. His offensive line stinks and last year he was arguably the biggest bust in fantasy. To be honest I was a little surprised when Keetz took him so early (ADP 20, #14 here) but it was definitely a positional thing. If the Rams improve even a little he should produce solid numbers. Carlos Hyde is another potential “what the fuck?!!?!?” type of guy. He’s got talent and he’s got injury history. He’s also got a new head coach who has no loyalty to him. I need Hyde to be good in another league, so fingers crossed.

NEXT 5:

Keetz filled out his roster in the middle round and grabbed a QB, a TE and some FLEX options.

Joe Mixon in the 6th round is actually a steal compared to where I’ve seen him go in other drafts (as early as rd3). He’s clearly the Bengal’s best RB, but the Bengals have been the most frustrating backfield in fantasy five years running. He could be a mid-season boomer sorta like Gurley was his rookie year (heyooo). Keetz also took Frank Gore at RB and I’m pretty sure Keetz has owned him 3 years in a row now. Gore is 34 years old, but he’s accumulated 1,000-plus all-purpose yards in ELEVEN consecutive seasons. In the 8th round he was definitely worth the risk.

After taking three WRs in the top 5 rounds, Keetz scaled it back and took just one here – Stefon Diggs. Diggs is really talented and has a lot of potential, but he plays on a bad offense with Sam Bradford at QB. His ceiling is high (5 games with 15+ last year), but his floor is really low (9 games with fewer than 10 points including injury). He could have a breakout year though and I like the pick.

Keetz wrapped up the middle rounds by taking Martellus Bennett for his TE and Kurt Cousins for his QB. I like the Cousins pick a lot – top 5 QB in 2016 for a 10th rounder? Sign me up. The Martellus Bennett one is interesting. Not in a good way, I’m legitimately curious to see how he does. The Packers suck with tight ends, but if it works out it could work out really well. Bennett is tough to read, but he’s had a pretty good career and has a great QB (5 straight years with 50+ catches). He was sorta underwhelming with the Pats last year though....idk.

LAST 5:

Mixons Here Hyde Ur Gurley had a really strong finish to the draft, arguably one of the best in the league. He took a good flier on Andrew Luck in the 11th, which could obviously pay HUGE dividends (as long as they have enough E&P – Bryant Education for the win). His shoulder is fucked but if he plays well the second half of the season…..

For Kicker and D he took Kevin’s worst nightmare (Justin Tucker) and the Jag’s D. Tucker is always a top 5 kicker, not much to say there. The Jag’s D has a ton of talent and signed AJ Bouye this offseason – but……Jags. I imagine their offense will put them in a lot of tough spots.

I’m skeptical of the Kevin White pick, but a 14th rounder for a former 1st round draft pick is a risk I’d be willing to take. Cam Meredith is out for the year so it’s possible White is their WR#1. Gio Bernard in the 15th round was another huge upside pick and some nice insurance for Mixon. Even if Mixon doesn’t pan out, Bernard will get his. In the 10 games he played last year, Bernard had 14 or more points in 6 of them.

STRENGTH:

Mixon’s Here Hyde Ur Gurley is a pretty creative team name. I don’t know if I’ve seen anyone fit three player names into a team name before – never-mind three players they own.

Aside from that Keetz just has a TON of upside. Keenan Allen could have a career year, Gurley should bounce back, Mixon might be the best rookie RB, Andrew Luck could be the steal of the draft and Mike Evans could finish as WR1 this year. I thought my team had a lot of upside/breakout appeal but Keetz probably has me beat there. A people should know when they are conquered.

WEAKNESS:

While there is a ton of upside, there are many potential downfalls. What if Keenan Allen gets hurt? What if Demaryius continues to decline? (His yards/TDs have declined each of the last 3 years.) What if Todd Gurley continues to suffer behind a bad O-Line and what if Carlos Hyde gets hurt AGAIN? What if the Bengals backfield is a true RBBC? What if this is the year Frank Gore finally proves to be mortal? I could keep going, but you get the point. While the ceiling is high and attractive, the floor is equally low and unattractive.

DRAFT GRADE, PREDICTION AND FINAL NOTES:

I’ll give Keetz a B+ for this draft and would give him an 88.5 out of 100. I predict he’ll make the playoffs at 8-5, win his first round matchup and lose in the second round.

I said it all above – this team has so much boom or bust potential. Some of it is definitely going to work out his way, but indubitably some of them will fall flat. Indubitably. He’s got two really good QBs and arguably has the best top 3 WR group in the league. His RBs leave room for doubts and I’m skeptical of Martellus Bennett, but those QBs and WRs will be his life-blood. Overall I like his team, but I put him slightly behind Taige/Lamone.