2018 DRAFT RECAPS - 7TH OVERALL - KEETZ — Protector Of The League

Number 7: Mixons Here Hyde Ur Gurley owned by Jon Keetz

First Five:

Keetz drew the 7th pick which wasn’t horrible, but not great either. Going into it I expected that he’d end up with one of the top tier WRs (Odell/Hopkins), or have his choice of the 2nd tier RBs (Barkley/Kamara/Gordon etc). What I didn’t expect was that Zeke Elliot would fall to him at #7. Here’s a live look at Keetz when he saw Zeke was still there for his pick……

This was incredibly fortunate – Keetz got a player who was a top 3 pick until about 2 weeks ago at half that cost. So how did it happen? Zeke started to fall once his offensive line started to fall apart – that dropped him behind the top 3 RBs. Ken then took Antonio Brown at 4 which was sorta expected but also unexpected. My pick was another curveball – Saquon Barkley over Zeke. I already have Zeke in another league and I don’t feel great about the Cowboys offense this year. The most shocking one was the 6 pick – Frader picked DeAndre Hopkins over Zeke. Those 4 picks (4 through 7) will be linked throughout this season and will probably determine each team’s fate.

Anyways Keetz proceeded to take Devonta Freeman in the 2nd round and Tyreek Hill in the 3rd. I like Devonta Freeman, but he definitely worries me. He runs like a savage which led to him suffering a concussion last year. He also doesn’t catch many passes which is kind of a necessity for high end RBs. Tevin Coleman is always a threat to take work. Still, when Freeman is on he’s on and the Falcons offense should be better this year. Hill at #27 is a good pick IMO. He’s pretty similar to TY Hilton, but he’s younger and his QB doesn’t have lingering shoulder issues. I think everyone saw that throw Mahomes made to Hill in the preseason….. While I’m not sure he’ll finish as a top 5 WR again, top 15 is reasonable.

Keetz built more WR depth after that with Doug Baldwin and Brandin Cooks. Baldwin admitted that his knee injury might be a problem for him this year, but he’s still capable of big games. Playing with Russel Wilson doesn’t hurt. High risk, high reward here (HRHR). Brandin Cooks in the 5th was another HRHR player. I’ve heard people say there are too many mouths to feed on the Rams offense….. but why would they have traded a first round pick to get Cooks if they didn’t plan on using him? Like Baldwin I think he’ll have some 3 for 45 duds, but then have some 5 for 130 and 2 TD games sprinkled in which win you the week.

Next Five:

In the middle rounds we saw the champ take some RB depth and some upside/value picks. For RB depth he took The Arch-Duke of Grand Fenwick Johnson (#HIMYM), Jay-anith Bisa Ajayi and Rashaad Penny Dreadful. Duke Johnson will probably never be a true “lead back”, but he nearly cracked the Top 20 in RB scoring last year due to his passing down work (74 catches 690 yards, 3 TDs). He’s a very solid FLEX. Jay Ajayi has bad knees and is in a crowded backfield, but I can easily see a scenario where he’s the bellcow back for stretches of the season. An 8th round pick is a steal if that comes to pass. Last but not least, Rashaad Penny. He was a surprise first round pick on draft day, but I’ll repeat what I said about Brandin Cooks above…. Why use a first rounder on him if you’re not planning to use him? RBBC is the only thing potentially limiting his value.

As for the other picks: Will Fuller? I Barely Know Her in the 7th and Andrew Luck Be a Lady Tonight in the 9th. Fuller was a beast when Deshaun Watson played last year, but I’m not sure the touchdown rate is sustainable. He’s also injury prone. Looking at Keetz’ team I’m not sure he’ll crack the starting lineup very often. The talent is there though.

Andrew Luck in the 9th is a good pick – it’s easy to forget he threw for 40 TDs in 2014 and 31 in 2016. Injury is the only concern here, but in the 9th round it’s worth the risk.

Last Five:

Keetz did a nice job of rounding out his roster in the final rounds. David Njoku in the 10th was a steal for his #1 TE. Njoku is a popular breakout pick this year and is a physical freak. Mike Williams in the 11th – another physical freak. I'll remind you that he was a top 10 pick in 2017.

The Texans D in the 12th was a good pick as well. When healthy their D Line is one of the best in the league (JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus). The ageless Adam Vinatieri was Keetz’ choice at Kicker, another time I saw the Kicker/QB stack. Alex Smith was his last pick and was the perfect compliment to Andrew Luck. While Luck has all the upside in the world, Alex Smith can come in and produce like a top 12 QB if needed. His weapons in Washington aren’t as good as they were with the Chiefs, but in the 15th round this is a good pick.

Grade:

I give Keetz a B+/A- for this draft. If I had to give it a number it’d be an 89 or 90/100. Zeke falling into his lap bumps that up, but Devonta Freeman bumps it down a little for me. I’m not sold on his WRs, although the talent and potential is there. I like all of his late round picks and there is a lot of “steal potential” here, so I’ll go B+/A-.

Prediction:

Keetz will finish 7-6 and make it to the playoffs, but will exit in the first round. It is so so so hard to repeat in fantasy sports. The perfect storm of luck, good fortune and good decision making is just difficult to replicate. Second and more importantly, I just think there are some better teams. Keetz has a good team no doubt, but not sure it’s as good as last year. Plus the whole Todd Gurley thing.