WEEK 12 - PART 1

WEEK 12 RECAPS – GIVING THANKS & HANDICAPS:

Welcome back for some GWBL entertainment, Week 12 edition. We only have 1 more week in the regular season and as a result, this will be the last week of GWBL weekly entertainment. I’m still going to finish the year with season-long recaps, but this will be the last regular recap. Anyways it’s Thanksgiving-week and to stick with that theme, I’m going to look at each team and identify one thing they should be thankful for. As a bonus I’m also going to handicap the rest of the season and give odds to each team for their chances of winning the GWBL CHAMPIONSHIP. Happy Thanksgiving everyone, safe travels this week/weekend.  

Make America Gordon Again (2-10):

Giving Thanks: Tieg should be thankful that we didn’t formally institute a Gabriel punishment. He’s always been one of the most vocal owners when it comes to having one, but fortunately for him that’s not a high priority on my list of commissioner duties. In most years it wouldn’t be a concern for Tieg, but he auto-drafted this year and ended up in last place. He should be thankful that he’s not getting a tattoo, growing a mustache, having a calendar of embarrassing pictures made, taking the SATs, travelling across the country on a bus or one of the many other punishments we’ve discussed over the years.

Handicap: N/A

Tieg is officially eliminated from playoff contention and we are not taking bets on his chances.

The Skid Row Nightcrawlers (3-9):

Giving Thanks: Guy should be thankful that Christian McCaffrey fell to him at #3 overall. Based on his performance this year, McCaffrey should have been the #1 pick. He’s the #1 scoring RB in fantasy and the #1 player overall. He has more points than Lamar Jackson!!! He averages, let me say that again – AVERAGES – 33.4 points per game. Meanwhile Saquon and Kamara (#1 and #2 picks) average 17 and 18 points per game respectively. And that’s all I have to say about that.

Handicap: N/A

Guy is officially eliminated from playoff contention and we are not taking bets on his chances.

 MaKamaraca Great Again (5-7):

Giving Thanks: Kev should be thankful that Patrick Mahomes’ injury was not as serious as it first appeared. In Week 7 Mahomes was injured when his knee/ankle got twisted like a pair of headphones at the bottom of a gym bag. It appeared that Mahomes had torn his ACL or otherwise ended his season and anyone who took him in the first 3-4 rounds of the draft was crushed. Somehow, someway, Mahomes only missed 2 games and has come back firing. He’s scored 56 points in his last two games combined and has Oakland at home in a critical Week 13 for fantasy owners.

Handicap: 1,000-1

Yes that is one thousand to one, meaning that Kev has a 0.1% chance to win the league. Alternatively, if you bet $100 on Kev, you would win nearly a million dollars on a +999000 betting line. We all know how bad Kev’s luck is and aside from that he’s the 8th seed right now. He needs to beat Robby D and have both Lamone /Dyl lose just in order to make the playoffs in the first place. It’s possible, but not looking great.

Tell Sloan I Said What Up (5-7):

Giving Thanks: Dyl should be thankful that fantasy analysts are morons and rated David Johnson, LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb and James Conner ahead of Dalvin Cook heading into draft season. Somehow someway the entire industry was wrong on Cook and he fell to Dylan in the last pick of the 2nd round. That won’t happen next year after Cook’s huge 2019 season. He’s RB2 only behind McCaffrey and is on pace for 1,500 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs.

Handicap: 19-1

The Cannellos SportsBook has the reigning champ at 19-1 odds, with about a 5% chance of winning the league. That’s a +1900 betting line and would pay out $1,900 on a $100 bet. While Dyl has more reputational history on his side than Kev, his odds of even making the playoffs are similarly low. He needs both Lamone and Robby D to lose AND he has to beat Keetz just to make it. Nevermind having to win three games in a row come playoff-time as he’s out of contention for a bye. He also blew all of his luck last year with the upset of the century in the finals and no one repeats in this league. And I’m not saying this because I’m bitter, not bitter at all.

PS: this is the % I feel the LEAST confident about. If Dylan were to make playoffs I’d add about 10-15% to his chances of taking the league. Saquon, Fournette, Cook, done and done. I also initially said he’d win the league in draft recaps and much of that logic still holds.

KingoftheNorth Shore (6-6):

Giving Thanks: Robby D should give thanks to the fantasy points gods. A lot of fantasy football is luck and Robby D has been quite lucky when it comes to points scored and most importantly, points against. He’s scored 1,375 points this year which is 9th in our league (115 per game). In terms of points against – he has the fewest with 1,340 or 112 against per week. That’s 106 fewer than the 9th place team (Frader), which is close to 10 points per week. That’s over 300 points fewer than Tieg’s had scored against him this week, or 25 points per week. Twenty Five. Lucky…Duck.  

Handicap: 7-1

I give Robby 7-1 odds with a 12.5% chance to win the league. That’s a +700 line and would pay out $700 on a $100 bet. Robby D is currently slated into a playoff spot, but he needs to beat Kev in Week 13 in order to make it in. If he loses to Kev, he’s out as he has the 2nd fewest points among all teams in the league and would miss the playoffs on tie breakers. The points against luck has to regress at some point right?