DRAFT RECAPS - 5TH PICK
5TH PICK: TEAM NAME TBD – KEETZ
Rounds 1-5:
Keetz had the 5th pick and was the first person to draft a WR - Deandre Hopkins. Hopkins was the clear #1 receiver in the draft pool and Keetz will build his team around his projected 101 catches for 1,300 yards and 9 TDs. Hopkins has been arguably the best WR in the NFL the past two years, totaling 211 catches, 2,950 receiving yards and 24 TDs. One of the most sure-handed receivers in football, he dropped just 2 passes all of last season.
Keetz went WR again in the second round and took Julio Jones. While his low TD totals are brought up frequently, Jones will still pile up yards and receptions in that Falcons offense. Last year he led the NFL with 1,677 receiving yards and his 113 catches were 4th behind Michael Thomas, Ertz and Hopkins. While I might have gone RB in this spot, Jones will produce good numbers for Keetz.
In the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds we saw Keetz pivot away from WR and take 3 runners to lead his backfield. Despite being burned by Devonta Freeman last year, Keetz took him in the 3rd and will hope he can return to form and stay healthy. Freeman is a fun back to watch due to his violent running style and I can’t knock the pick in the 3rd round. He reminds me of RBs like Maurice Jones Drew, Michael Turner, Marion Barber, etc and those guys were great for fantasy owners in their prime.
The next pick was Josh Jacobs and it’ll be interesting to see how this one works out. He should be the #1 guy on the Raiders, but no one really knows how efficient that offense will be. The thing that really gives me pause is that we just haven’t seen much out of Jacobs – this preseason OR in college. In three years at Alabama he only totaled 1,500 yards on the ground to go along with 500 receiving yards. Prior to the 2018 season he had scored just 7 TDs in 2 seasons. This could work great if he gets heavy volume and leads their backfield, but if he doesn’t get the expected workload I could see this pick being kind of a dud.
In the 5th round Keetz took Mark Ingram who is supposed to be the Ravens starter at RB. The Ravens typically put up good rushing numbers, but it’s been really difficult to predict WHO will be putting up those numbers. In 2015 Justin Forsett stole the RB job from Javorious Allen. In 2016 Terrance West stole the job from Justin Forsett. In 2017 Alex Collins stole the job from Terrance West. In 2018 Gus Edwards stole the job from Alex Collins. The Ravens have a number of capable RBs on their team – Edwards, Kenneth Dixon and Justice Hill – so it’s possible that history will repeat itself. That said, Ingram is more talented than all of those guys I just named.
Rounds 6-10:
Keetz built out his FLEX depth and grabbed a QB and TE with his next 5 picks. AJ Green in the 6th could end up being a HUGE steal and was probably the best value pick made on draft day. Despite playing just 9 games last year he accumulated 46 catches for 700 yards and 6 TDs. He’s going to miss a few weeks to start the year, but if he comes back and is AJ Green again – this will be a huge ROI.
The next two picks were Duke Johnson and Jarvis Landry and both of them could be great. While the Texans just signed Carlos Hyde, I don’t think he’ll be much of a threat to Duke Johnson’s workload. The Texans also upgraded their offensive line this weekend which bodes well for his productivity. Something in the range of 1,200 total yards and 50-75 catches is a completely reasonable expectation. Landry in the 8th round is a great value considering what he put up last year – 81 catches, 976 yards and 5 total TDs. While some people think Odell joining the Browns will crush his value, I think it might actually help him as Odell will be drawing a lot of coverage his way.
Delanie Walker in the 9th was another great value pick and solidifies the TE spot for Keetz. From 2015-2017 Walker caught 63+ passes for 800+ yards and averaged 5 TDs per season. While he likely won’t’ put up elite numbers a la Travis Kelce, Walker should be competitive at the TE position. As someone who took a TE in the 3rd round I’m definitely jealous of the value.
Russel Wilson in the 10th could work out nicely as his QB1. While Wilson wasn’t even a top 12 QB last year, there’s no denying his talent and upside. I actually think he was the #1 QB in our scoring in 2017 and another finish like that is definitely a possibility (4,000 passing, 500 rushing, 37 total TDs). His WR group is a little weak, but he seems to find a way to produce. He also doesn’t turns the ball over to often which is great – just 7 INTs last year.
Rounds 11-15:
Keetz picked up a Russel Wilson clone in the 12th round – Kyler Murray. The Cardinals offensive line is a travesty, but Murray is a really talented player. If he can be efficient as a passer and rack up the rushing yards then he’ll likely outperform this draft position. His numbers were outrageous last year at Oklahoma – 4,300 passing yards, 1,000 more on the ground and 54 total TDs. Between these two guys Keetz should be fine at the QB position.
Royce Freeman in the 11th round is an interesting pick. He was supposed to be the Broncos starting RB last year and was going as high as the 4th round in drafts. Unfortunately for Lamone (drafted him last year), he disappointed as a rookie and more or less lost his job to the undrafted Phillip Lindsay. There is a potential breakout here, but it’s also likely he’ll be splitting the work with Lindsay again.
Mark Andrews was the pick in round 14 and this is a “meh” for me. Andrews had a ton of buzz earlier in the preseason, but I’m just not high on any of the pass catchers on the Ravens.
He filled out his team by taking the Chargers D and Harrison Butker of the Chiefs. Butker is a good pick and plays on the best offense in football – if a few more of those Mahomes passing TDs end up as field goal attempts he’ll be a great kicker to have. The Chargers D is a solid pick as well and they have a ton of talented players. Derwin James is hurt, but Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and a strong stable of d-backs should keep them in the top 10 for defense scoring.
Grade:
A-
Keetz has the top WR duo in the league and has a ton of FLEX depth. AJ Green in the 6th is a major value pick and Keetz’ entire draft is full of good bargains and smart picks. Russel Wilson and Delanie Walker are a great QB/TE combo and he waited a long time to draft both of them. His kicker/D are above average and he has a potential lottery winner in Kyler Murray. There are a few question marks at RB, but there is a ton of upside here.
Prediction:
I predict Keetz goes 8-5, makes the playoffs but loses in the finals. He has a great WR group and should be able to find at least 2 quality starting RBs among those 5 guys. The only thing that could sink him are those RBs – if Freeman gets hurt again, Josh Jacobs doesn’t take off the way we expect he could and Ingram loses his job things would look pretty thin. Royce Freeman is in a timeshare and Duke Johnson might be as well, but like I said – he just needs 2 of those guys to pop given his WR depth. Overall a great draft and we’re looking at another successful season for Keetz.
