DRAFT RECAPS - 4TH PICK

4TH PICK: KINGoftheNORTH SHORE– ROBBY D

Note: strong team name by Robby D as always. Topical, relevant and props for the ridiculous picture. I think it’s King IN the North, but King OF the North plays. Last comment on that – this is the first time in 5 years that Robby D’s team name didn’t insult Ken. Getting soft in your old age Bob….

Rounds 1-5:

Heading into fantasy draft prep season it was looking like 4th overall one of the better early picks - you were guaranteed to get 1 of Saquon, Kamara, McCaffrey or Zeke. Sadly for Robby D it got worse as draft season progressed. Zeke and Melvin Gordon held out and this draft slot became the definition of purgatory. Take the #1 WR at 4, or reach for that second tier of RBs? Robby D checked the scoring rules, saw points per carry and decided to go with David Johnson.

Lamone’s favorite player is coming off a pretty disappointing season in 2018. Yes, he was RB9 in our scoring and had over 300 touches (250 carries, 50 receptions), but he was wildly inefficient. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and 8.92 yards per catch. Their offensive line didn’t get any better (it may have gotten worse), so I’d expect more of the same this season. Poor efficiency, but a ton of volume. Volume counts in this league so while it may be frustrating at times, I bet Johnson finishes as a top 10 back yet again.

Robby D’s second round pick was Juju and this should work out well for him. Antonio Brown isn’t there to draw coverage, but the Steelers will move him around to get away from some of those top CBs. JJSS is really talented and broke out last year with 111 catches for 1,400 and 7 TDs. He should easily top the 166 targets he had and I bet his final numbers look similar to that line if not better.

Things went off the rails a bit in the 3rd and 4th round when King of the North Shore took Amari Cooper and Derrick Henry. Cooper was a beast for the Cowboys last year, but I think he caught a lot of people by surprise as they had no game film with him and Dak. They have that this year and he’ll certainly get the attention deserving of a #1 WR. Additionally, he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis which is a nagging and painful injury – there’s a good chance he’s not 100% right now. Finally, if Zeke holds out at all that reduces the number of defenders who have to play close to the line. I don’t HATE this pick, but I think it’s risky and I would have rather gone with Keenan Allen, Thielen, Edelman, Diggs, etc.

I do hate the Derrick Henry pick because he’s been so brutal for fantasy owners. If you take out his best 2 games of last season his final statline would have been: 165 carries for 651 yards (3.94) and 6 TDs in 14 games. If you take out his best 3 games it drops to an unsightly 154 carries for 593 yards (3.85) and 4 TDs in 13 games. Prior to Week 14 of last season, he had 1 single game with 16 or more fantasy points. All in all he had fewer than 10 points in 8 of 16 games.

We got an in interesting pick in the 5th round when Robby D took Damien Williams of the Chiefs. I like the pick based on the value – it wasn’t long ago that Williams was a consideration in the late 2nd or early 3rd round. Unfortunately he was dinged up during the preseason and that opened the door for Darwin Thompson to get work. Since our draft they Chiefs added Lesean McCoy and there’s a good chance he eats into Williams’ workload. The fate of this pick will have a pretty major impact on Robby D’s season.

Rounds 6-10:

In the 6th and 8th rounds Robby D took a Texans stack of Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller respectively. Watson was the #2 QB off the board after finishing in the top 4 of scoring last year and is in line for another big season. In 2018 he completed 68% of his passes for 4,000 yards and 26 TDs. That’s not a very high TD total, but he provides so much value with his rushing stats. If he comes anywhere close to the 99 carries, 551 yards and 5 rushing TDs he put up in 2018 this pick will be a success. Will Fuller is a high ceiling low floor pick, but the 8th round is fine value. He’s scored 11 TDs in his past 17 games, but he’s missed 15 games over the past 2 seasons. He also has Kenny Stills and Keke do you love me Coutee to contend with in the targets department.

I like the David Montgomery pick – 7th rounder. The rookie is in line to lead the Bears backfield and he could vastly outperform this draft slot. Jordan Howard was a top 20 RB last year and nearly rushed for 1,000 yards to go along with 9 TDs. Montgomery could definitely put up similar numbers and be more efficient than the plodding Howard. The only caveats here are a) that he’s a rookie and b) Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis will take work away.

King of the North Shore closed out the middle rounds by selecting two Kansas City Chefs. Who are the Chefs? Hungry? Grab a snickers.

Sammy Twatskins as a 9th round pick could work out nicely. He only had 40 catches for 500 yards and 3 TDs last year, but that came in 10 games. That’s a 16-game pace of 64 catches, 830 yards and 5 TDs. If anything happens to Tyreek Hill he likely becomes their #1 receiver. Darwin Thompson was the pick in the 10th round – this one looked a lot better at the time than it does now. Thompson will probably get looks, but it seems like this will be a three-way committee with Williams, Lesean and Thompson. (Not to mention the carries Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman will get.)

Rounds 11-15:

Robby D waited until the late rounds to address the TE position and took Jordan Reed in the 12th and Jimmy Graham in the 15th. Jordan Reed suffered another concussion in the preseason and his status for Week 1 is in doubt. You might get decent production out of him here and there, but it’s unlikely he plays more than 8-10 games. I like the Jimmy Graham pick more, but he was disappointing last year. The 55 catches and 636 yards were respectable, but he only scored 2 TDs. He has some kind of hand/finger injury and Aaron Rodgers has never been favorable to TEs. We’ll see how this goes but I imagine Robby D will be streaming TEs all year.

The one FLEX potential player he took in the late rounds was Marquez Valdez Scantling in the 11th round. MVS is a big WR at 6-5, but he’s young and unproven. He shined for stretches, but ultimately only recorded 38 catches, 581 yards and 2 TDs. This is a good flier though, exactly the type of pick you make in the later rounds.

We saw Robby D fill out his roster by taking the Bills D in the 13th and Will Lutz in the 14th round. Obviously I love the Bills pick given Robby D’s history in the league. I’ve gone so far as to call his teams the Buffalo Bob D’s given how many times they’ve finished 2nd in the finals. They have some good players (TreDavious White), but he’ll likely be streaming defenses this year.

Will Lutz was a good choice at kicker – plays for a high powered offense and kicks indoors so all good here.

Grade:

B-

A solid draft by Robby D, solid but unspectacular. He started off strong with DJ/Juju, but I don’t really like his 3rd and 4th round picks (Amari/Henry). There are some intriguing upside plays on his bench, but half of those guys could be useless and a number of them are injury prone. Deshaun Watson and David Montgomery were good picks in the middle rounds though.

Prediction:

I say Robby D finished 5-8 and misses the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row. His RB situation has the potential to implode and that’s why I’m knocking him down here. David Johnson is talented, but the Cardinals have the worst o-line in football. Derrick Henry is maddeningly inconsistent and will lose work to Dion Lewis. I personally like David Montgomery, but he’s a rookie and could be in a timeshare. Speaking of time-shares, Robby D has 2 guys on the Chiefs who are expected to employ a 3-man timeshare.  

Note: this is my boldest call considering Robby D is projected for the most points in Week 1.