DRAFT RECAPS - 3RD PICK — Protector Of The League

3RD PICK – THE SKID ROW NIGHTCRAWLERS - GUY

Rounds 1-5:

For the 2nd year in a row Guy got a top 3 pick and he used that pick on Christian McCaffrey. It sucks we drafted when we did because Guy would have ended up with Zeke or Kamara had we drafted this week (which personally I think is a better result for him). Nevertheless, McCaffrey is exceptionally talented. He caught 107 passes last year and rushed 219 times for 1,965 all purpose yards. That was good for 3rd most in the league behind Saquon and Zeke.

So why am I down on him compared to Zeke, Kamara and Saquon? A few reasons: first his lack of TDs – just 20 total in 2 seasons as a pro. For comparison Alvin Kamara has 31 in 2 seasons and Saquon had 15 last year alone. He also has a lot of competition for touches: Cam steals short yardage work/TDs while Curtis Samuel, DJ Moore, Greg Olsen and Ian Thomas will take away targets. Third is just regression – is he really going to catch 107 passes again? Unlikely. Lastly, he reportedly gained weight this offseason. That may be good for photos on the beach with Olivia Culpo, but it’s not good for an RB who’s #1 talents are speed and elusiveness. I hope I’m wrong and McCaffrey has another big year, but I just have a feeling he might disappoint his owners.

Guy selected two more backs in the 2nd and 3rd round. I like the James Conner pick - he’s in a great situation with a good offensive line. Am I a little worried about extra defenders in the box resulting from Antonio Brown’s departure? A little, but Juju should still help in that regard. I’m more worried about Jaylen Samuels stealing work from him, but we’ll see how that goes.

Kerryon in the 3rd was a good pick from a talent perspective, but I’m a little nervous about him. He put up great stats in 10 games during 2018 – 854 all purpose yards and 4 TDs. The problem is that he’s injury prone, VERY injury prone. In the last three years alone he’s had shoulder surgery, an ankle sprain, a hamstring pull, another shoulder injury and last year dealt with a knee strain. Sportsinjurypredictor.com has him at a 62% of injury in 2019 and projects him to miss at least 3 games. That said – when he’s on the field he will produce.

Guy took two pass-catchers to round out his top 5 – TY Hilton in the 4th and OJ Howard in the 5th. Hilton was projected as an early third round pick before Luck’s retirement, so getting him at the end of the 4th isn’t a reach by any means. Still, it’s scary to look at his stat line the last time Andrew Luck wasn’t his QB…. 2017 when he only had 57 catches and 4 TDs.

The Howard pick was a good one - he’s a physical freak at 6-6, 242 and he ran a 4.51 at the combine. In his first two NFL seasons he’s already totaled 1,000 yards receiving and 11 TDs. The Bucs defense and running game suck so they should throw a lot. Plenty to go around between Mike Evans, Godwin, Cameron Brate and Howard. I feel like Guy should have used OJ HOWARD as inspiration for his team name, but Skid Row Night Crawlers will have to do.

Rounds 6-10:

Guy grabbed a QB with his 6th round pick – Baker Mayfield. Baker is a really popular breakout candidate this year and with good reason: he’s in his second season, played well as a rookie, has a solid offensive line and most importantly – has weapons. Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, David Njoku, Nick Chubb, Dontrell Hilliard and Antonio Callaway just to name a few. The only question I raise is – what’s the difference between Baker in the 6th and someone like Russel Wilson or Carson Wentz who can be had in the 10th round or later?

He was a little light on WR at this point, so he worked to fill the gaps by taking 3 receivers in a row from rounds 7 through 9. Calvin Ridley in the 7th round was a good pick and could pay nice dividends. As a rookie he had 800 yards and 10 TDs as a top 20 WR. Opposing defenses must respect Julio and who will benefit from 1 on 1 coverage more than Ridley? Likely no one unless they pull nonsense like last year and give Mohammed Sanu 94 targets again.

Robby Anderson was the GUY in the 8th round and I’m not your pal, GUY. I’m not your GUY FRIEND. I digress. Despite playing 2018 with a rookie QB who was clearly not ready to start NFL games, he tallied 50 catches for 750 yards and 6 TDs in 14 games. With Sam Darnold one year older and with a better offensive coach I expect those numbers to be closer to his breakout 2017: 63 catches 950 yards and 7 TDs. Maybe not an every week starter, but a very good WR3 and bye week fill in.

In the 9th round it was Christian Kirk and I love this from a talent perspective. He was a 2nd round pick by the Cardinals in 2018 after putting up good numbers at Texas A&M (234 for 2,850 and 26 TD in 3 yrs) and running well at the Combine (4.47 forty at 6-0 200). While his rookie season was quiet, he still had 600 yards receiving and 3 TDs – he also returns kicks/punts. Solid late round flier.

Guy took his favorite team’s defense in the 10th round – the Chicago Bears. Idk why Guy is a Bears fan but he’s had their defense on his team every year since they dragged Rex Grossman to the Super Bowl. Fantasy football principles say you shouldn’t pick a D this early, but if you’re going to then why not get the best defense from 2018? We’ll see how they look tonight, but for now he has the #1 D.

Rounds 11-15:

Two of Guy’s late round picks were RBs – Latavius Murray in the 11th and Peyton Barber in the 13th. The Murray pick was really smart as he will likely produce regardless of what Kamara does. If Kamara were to get hurt then Murray immediately becomes a top 10 back. In our points per carry format this is a great pick.

I’m a little less sold on the Peyton Barber one. I guess he’s a starting RB, but he averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season and just isn’t that great of an athlete. I doubt he’ll see Guy’s starting lineup this season.

His last FLEX-eligible draft pick was Desean Jackson in the 14th round. By all accounts Jackson has had a big summer and definitely had some hype heading into draft season. He’s getting a little long in the tooth (32 years old), but he’s still a burner capable of big plays. Due to his boom or bust nature I doubt Guy will ever feel comfortable starting him, but you could do worse for a 14th rounder.

While he was the first person to pick a defense, he was not the first to take a kicker – the 3rd actually. Gostkowski was the pick in round 12 and he should finish as a top 12 kicker. The problem with him is that the Patriots score too many TDs. Gostkowski only attempted 32 field goals last year which was 8th most in the NFL.

Guy took a backup TE in the 15th round – Kyle Rudolph. Snore. Rudolph is old, slow, past his prime and about to lose his job to Irv Smith. PASS.

Grade:

B

Prediction:

I say Guy finishes 6-7 and misses the playoffs on a points tie breaker. I like Guy’s team, but I don’t love it. He has a really strong starting 3 at RB and Latavius could explode depending on what happens to Kamara. His top 2 WRs definitely have a lot of talent and the next 2 are big upside plays. Based on ADP he has a top 5 TE, top 3 QB, #1 defense and top 3 kicker.

All of that said, he paid a lot for 2018 breakouts and I think most of these guys will regress a little year. McCaffrey can’t possibly meet his 2018 stat line and James Conner really wasn’t that great outside of a few huge games. Kerryon Johnson is injury prone and Latavius Murray is on a new team. Ty Hilton lost his QB, Ridley can’t possibly score 10 TDs again and OJ Howard’s TD rate is unsustainable as well. Baker was a reach and drafting a D in the top 10 rounds rarely works….. looking at you Jacksonville. Last but not least – and take it for what it’s worth – but the final projections have Guy finishing at #8 in our league. (He’s also projected for the lowest week 1 total, but here’s another grain of salt for you.)

PS: I initially had Guy at 7-6 and making the playoffs, but due to Zeke’s holdout ending Frader has taken Guy’s playoff spot.