2017 George W Bush League - Draft Recaps - 10th Pick
PICK:
10th Overall
TEAM:
JABAAL PAP SHMEARD, owned by Matt Lamonakis
TOP 5:
Lamone took a diverse approach to the first five rounds and grabbed two RBs, a WR, a TE and a QB. The Pap Shmeard had one of the “turn” picks and went DeMarco Murray/Ajayi with the first turn, Terrelle Pryor/TB12 with the second turn and ended the 5th round with Jimmy Graham.
The RB-RB strategy to start the draft was a solid one and Lamone was actually the only person to go RB-RB with his first two picks. While both Murray and Ajayi were fantasy stars last year, both come with concerns. DeMarco Murray is somewhat injury prone and could lose touches to Derrick Henry. Jay Ajayi plays on a bad team and much of his production came in just 3 games last year. Still, given the scoring in our league (.2 points per carry), this strategy should pay off.
For receiving options he took Terrelle Pryor and Jimmy Graham. Terrelle Pryor is a physical freak and should enjoy a true breakout campaign with the Redskins. The only potential issue is whether or not he can find chemistry with Kirk Cousins – hopefully he can because Redskins management can’t. While the Jimmy Graham pick was a bit of a reach at 50, the tight end run had begun and Lamone didn’t have much of a choice (4 tight ends went in the 5th round). Graham had a bounce-back year with the Seahawks and should continue to produce as Russel Wilson’s #2 option (Baldwin #1).
Arguably the most impactful pick Lamone made here was Tom Brady in the 4th round. While it’s not generally advisable to take a QB with the 31st pick, Brady will be worth it. We reward points per completion in this league and Brady is one of the most efficient passers in the league. He’s very capable of putting up 30 point games and winning you your week.
NEXT 5:
After neglecting WR through the first 5 rounds, Lamone grabbed three in the next 5 rounds – Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Davis and Randall Cobb. He also grabbed some RB depth with CJ Anderson and Danny Woodhead.
Kelvin had a down year in 2016, but I think most of it was injury related. He was a really popular sleeper pick this year and should hold down Lamone’s #2 WR spot. Randall Cobb also had a down year in 2016, but getting him in the 10th round is an absolute steal. Let’s not forget he has Aaron Rodgers as his QB. Last but not least - Corey Davis. As with all rookie receivers, this could fall flat. All rookie receivers are a gamble, but the 5th overall pick in last year’s draft isn’t a bad one. At Western Michigan he caught 97 passes for 1,500 yards and 19 TDs in 2016.
The two running backs he took are full of upside and risk. CJ Anderson is capable of being a top 15 back, but he’s got a shit offensive line and can’t stay healthy. Danny Woodhead is exciting and should catch passes, but he also hasn’t been healthy this pre-season. As much as we all love Woodhead, he’s 32 years old and coming off ACL surgery……but what if?
LAST 5:
Lamone had a nice end to the draft, selecting the Seahawks D, Pierre Garcon, Matt Forte, Jack Doyle and the Steeler’s Kicker with his last pick. Grabbing a kicker last is always a smart move and the Steelers offense is going to score a lot - no problems there. The Legion of Boom isn’t quite what it used to be, but the Seahawks will still have a good defense – alright with that pick as well. Jack Doyle is the Colt’s #1 TE and once Andrew Luck comes back he’ll be a good bye week fill in (or insurance for Jimmy Graham).
The two picks I will elaborate on are Pierre Garcon and Matt Forte. While BiLAAAAL Powell has gotten all of the hype, Forte is still their starting running back. He’s old and brittle, but you just know there will be 1-2 games where he goes off for 20 points. He had 4 such games last year and overall he scored 10 or more points in 8 games. He won’t win Lamone a championship, but he’ll be a good bye week guy if he can stay healthy. Pierre Garcon was another pick I liked and he’ll be the 49ers #1 receiver. He’s not the best WR in the world, but the volume should be there. I anticipate he’ll finish better than the #31 WR, which is where he was last year (6 catches, 64 yards in Sunday’s game is a pretty reasonable baseline expectation per game with him).
STRENGTH:
Lamone’s strength is his specialty positions – TE and QB. He’ll have an advantage at both of those positions just about every single week. Picking Tom Brady at 31 was masterful and is one of the major reasons I think Lamone will do well this year. Despite missing 4 games, Brady still finished as QB13 last year and had 6 games with 30+ points. If I could do it all over again I would have taken Brady instead of Isaiah Crowell in the 3rd. I’m not that selfish though and wouldn’t mortgage the Patriots future for my fantasy team.
Jimmy Graham will be huge for Lamone as well and it was another guy he took right before I planned to. Picking behind Lamone on the turn sucked because he drafted really well on his second pick each time. Graham will approach 1,000 yards and finish as a top 5 TE this year.
WEAKNESS:
I have to say WR is his weakness, but that’s expected when you pick only 1 with your top 5 picks. While Terrelle Pryor is a popular hype-pick, you never really know if a new WR will click on his new team. Kelvin Benjamin is kinda the same – a hype-pick. He’s looked good in camp, but the Panther’s secondary is terrible (see Julio Jones 300 yard game last year). KAYLVIN (as Lamone says) was really bad last year and his speed can limit him in certain matchups. Cam is also a question-mark after going through off-season shoulder surgery.
Pierre Garcon, Randall Cobb and Corey Davis are all nice upside picks, but that’s all they are as of now – upside picks. Garcon has Brian Hoyer as his QB and Corey Davis/Cobb have a number of other weapons to compete with (Decker/Matthews/Walker/RBs in Tennessee, Jordy/Devante/Martellus/Montgomery in Green Bay). Lamone will have to stay on top of his WR coach this year to make sure they don’t drag his team down.
DRAFT GRADE**, PREDICTION AND FINAL NOTES:
Duh, forgot to add Lamone's draft grade in here. I'm a little rusty with football writeups as you can tell.
I give this draft an A-. It was really really good. Lamone has the best QB, a top 5 TE and two stud running backs. He got some sleepers later on along with some value picks. The only thing that holds it back is the question marks with his WRs. In terms of points it would be a 91 overall out of 100.
I predict that Lamone will go 8-5 and lose in the championship game. All of his research and effort from last year clearly carried over and he had a lot of good fortune in the draft. Two top RBs were there when he picked in the first – fortunate. Tom Brady fell and Jimmy Graham fell perfectly to him - fortunate.
Aside from that he made some good upside picks late and has a well-rounded team. His RB/WR depth is somewhat concerning, but our waivers have plenty of talent. I almost had Lamone pegged as the #1 team to beat this year, but winning this league back to back is nearly impossible.
