2017 George W Bush Entertainment - WEEK 1 (Part 1)

#1: THE STAR OF LARRY DAVID JOHNSON – LOST 82.4-114

FIRST DOWN:

The Star of David fizzled out this week as we watched David Johnson go down with an injury. It looks like he will miss at least 8-12 weeks and there is a strong chance he’s done for the year. As KFC would say – CUNCEL the David Johnson. I won’t sugar coat this - this SUCKS for Frader. Sucks like Allie Thompson. There’s no two ways about it, his team just got substantially worse. Rather than having three players in the top 21 of our league, Frader doesn’t even have one top 19 player. Time to panic....

Unrelated, but it’s kind of ironic that the Jewish guy who’s not overly religious names his team after a Jewish cultural icon……and it fails epically. Very interesting…. And I don’t mean to be a dick, it’s just something that occurred to me.

**Note – I predicted that Le’Veon would score more than DJ in Frader’s recap. I know I know, I’m good.

SECOND DOWN:

So how does Frader’s team look now? Let’s take a live look….

Lamar Miller now becomes Frader’s workhorse back with Jonathan Stewart stepping into the #2 spot. While both of them produced in week 1, I’m not fully buying it. His backfield is a tenuous situation at best and Frader is really banking on Doug Martin to come back strong. The Star of David is still shining at WR with Cooks, Amari and Sanders so he’ll need them to shoulder the load this season. While his QB and TE had a rough start, better days are ahead for Russel Wilson and Jordan Reed. QB is a pretty replaceable position, so Frader will have to keep an eye out.

Overall the roster looks “OKAY”….for a 12 man league. Unfortunately without DJ it’s one of the worst in our 10 man league. Oh well. There’s not much you can do Frader, you just have to keep on trucking. Sometimes you’re the train and sometimes your first round pick goes down in week 1. That’s life, but the show must go on.

THIRD DOWN: 

Let’s go back to Brandin Cooks since he’s the player on Frader’s team I’m the most curious about. His debut with the Patriots was…… mixed. He finished the day with 3 catches for 88 yards on 7 targets which resulted in 10.3 points. While that stat line wasn’t the reason Frader lost, you’re really looking for more here. If he only gets 7 targets a game is he really worth a 2nd round pick? I would say no. So what should we expect from Cooks?

Based on his career averages, Cooks should finish with 70 catches, about 1,000 yards and 7 TDs this year. But this is supposed to be the year Cooks breaks out right? With Edelman and Amendola hurt, won’t TB12 rely even more on Cooks? The answers to those questions are unclear. Tom really looked lost without Edelman/Amendola and there’s a chance that James White absorbs most of those targets. We’re also going to see more Gronk going forward since most teams can’t defend him the way the Chiefs did. Is it fair to expect more out of Cooks? I think so, but he’s still new to this team and will receive a lot of attention from opposing defenses. I believe in the talent, but my expectations are tempered for now.

#2: LeveonStuffed Kens TacoBell – LOST 70.5-98.6

(Side note: It’s pretty funny that the top two picks in the draft both lost their matchups. Robby D will obviously win this week when LeVeon bounces back, but it’s funny nonetheless. Frader on the other hand….)

FIRST DOWN:

We started with David Johnson for Frader’s team so we have to start with LeVeon Bell for Robby D’s team. There’s no other way to put this - it was a disappointing start. Bell only received 13 touches this week and didn’t seem to be a focal point of the offense. So what gives?

The only hesitation when drafting Le’Veon Bell was his hold-out. He showed up to practice about 5 days before the season started, so we didn’t know what to expect. How would he do? Would they ease him in? Would he get hurt from not being in shape? The answers to those questions would be that he didn’t play well and they were in fact easing him in. The most important answer is the third question though – he did NOT get hurt. After seeing what happened to the Star of Larry David Johnson, Robby D should be happy based on that alone.

As I said, Bell only received 13 touches this week - he turned those into 47 yards and 8.2 points. While that’s frustrating, concerning and terrible, this won’t happen again. This will be his lowest points output and fewest touches of the season – I GUARANTEE IT

How do I know this? Look at his touches from last year – 23, 29, 16, 31, 20, 26, 36, 27, 35, 42, 28 and 23. If that stat-line doesn’t make Bell owners feel better I don’t know what will. He’s just too good for this to happen again. My prediction for him this week – 25 carries, 130 yards, 6 catches, 60 yards, 2 TDs – somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 points. In fact, if Le’Veon scores fewer than 25 points this week I will donate $50 to the Pink Whales Foundation. Maybe I’ll do it anyways because I’m that kinda guy.

SECOND DOWN:

From a running back I am not concerned about, to a running back I am concerned about – Ameer Bagheerzabdullah. What is this guy’s deal? He’s been an enigma for fantasy purposes the last three years and I just don’t know what to think of him. I’ve drafted him in one league every year and have been let down every year.…..

2015 – plays the full year, but only has 800 total yards and 3 TDs.

2016 – has a great week 1 but suffers a season ending injury in Week 2.

2017 – great preseason, but shits the bed when the real games start.

So what can we expect from him? The fact that he had 18 total touches is comforting (15 carries/3 catches). The fact he only turned them into 40ish yards is not. Let’s set a projection for the season…

Last year the Lions combined for 1,300 rushing yards and 9 TDs. If Abdullah gets 60% of that production we’re looking at 800 yards and about 5 TDs. Add in 200 receiving yards with 2 TDs and we’d have a decent season. I think 1,000 total yards and 7 TDs is solid given where you drafted him (6th round). Overall I expect that he can achieve those numbers, if not better. I haven’t drafted him three years in a row because I don’t believe in his talent. As long as he stays healthy I think he’ll produce.

THIRD DOWN:

Brandon Marshall…….UGH. I don’t usually use the phrase UGH because it’s a girl thing, but UGH. And not Tom Brady Uggs, just UGH. Without Odell Beckham you figured Marshall would be a good play last week. He was supposed to be the #1 receiver on an offense that can’t run the ball. He was playing against a defense who lost half its secondary. What could go wrong? Everything. Marshall was one of the biggest busts this week and put up 1.5 points on 1 catch for 10 yards. Hurry back Odell, it’s pretty clear the only way Marshall will be good is if you’re there to take coverage away. Ugh. Good grief. 

#3: THE FOURNETTEUATE FEW – WON 137.6-98.9

FIRST DOWN:

It only makes sense that I start with Antonio Brown seeing as how he was the best WR among the 5 WRs taken in the first round. Come to think of it, I’m just going to examine everyone’s first round pick with the first observation. That would be logical for week 1. Anyways Brown scored 25.7 points this week and was .2 points away from leading ALL first round picks in points. Facing off against a Joe Haden-less CLEVELAND Browns, ANTONIO Brown caught 11 passes for 182 yards and no touchdowns. Yes it’s kind of crazy he didn’t get a touchdown with all of that production, but I don’t think Ken’s complaining. This is exactly the type of performance you were expecting when you drafted him #3 overall.

SECOND DOWN:

Low hanging fruit here, but let’s look at Leonard Fournetteuate Few as well (sorry Ken, still hate the team name). Fournette was definitely a surprise this week and earned his first career 100 yard game on Sunday. The 100 yards was great for a few reasons: first, he did it against a supposedly good Texans defense. This Texans/Jags game was the most shocking result of the week and it makes me wonder if Fournette is matchup-proof. Second and more important - he had 26 carries!! The 26 carries were the most by ANY RB in week 1 and he also had 3 catches for a total of 29 touches on the week. A lot of people including me were afraid to draft Fournette this year. He’s on a bad team, he’s somewhat injury prone, their o-line isn’t good, etc etc etc. Ken wasn’t afraid and it paid off handsomely during Week 1.

THIRD DOWN:

I will mention one negative thing here – Dez Bryant. I’m going to say it right now – I don’t think Dez Bryant is a top-flight WR anymore. He’s constantly drafted as a top 10 WR and in the 2nd round, but I’m just not buying it. To put it in other words, HE’S JUST NOT GOOD ANYMORE!!

In the 14 games that Dak Prescott and Dez have played together, Dez has recorded 52 catches for 800 yards and 8 TDs. Those are pretty mediocre numbers and equate to about 60 catches for 900 yards over a full season. If you extend that back to the start of 2015 (pre Dak), Dez has just 83 catches for 1,240 yards and 11 TDs over the last three seasons (24 games). If you average that over a 16 game season, the numbers look the same – 58 catches, 860 yards, 8 TDs. I said something similar with Brandin Cooks before, but are those numbers really worth a 2nd round pick? I would say no. While Dez may have a few good games, the Cowboys are a run-first team and Dak isn’t a down-field thrower. I really think Dez will disappoint this year.

#4: RatDick and the Peabody Steamers

FIRST DOWN: While Antonio Brown came as advertised in Week 1, Julio Jones was horrible, no good, really bad and terrible. In what appeared to be an absolute cake matchup, Julio decided to shit the bed and catch 4 passes for 66 yards and no TDs (8.6 points!!) This is despite the fact that Matt Ryan completed 21 passes for 321 yards and a TD. Of Ryan’s production, Julio was just 20% of it. So you’re telling me that 80% of the Falcons passing offense went to people OTHER than Julio? How the fuck does that happen?

I lost in a different league by 5 points when I had Julio – as you can tell I’m pissed about his lackluster performance. That being said, this was one thing I noticed when looking at his game log from last year – there were times when he straight disappeared. Disappeared like Karpel when the bill comes. Anyways in 2016 Julio had 5 games with 8 or fewer points - 7 when you include the 2 he missed to injury. He did make up for it with some huge games, but unfortunately I think that this is something Julio owners will have to live with. The Falcons offense has enough playmakers to spread the ball around and sometimes they just don’t NEED Julio to do much. This was one of those weeks and as a result he let you down.

SECOND DOWN:

My Lord it was a bad week for Tight Ends. I’d be willing to bet a chunk of your league dues (wink wink) that this was the worst week for tight ends ever - including Greg Olsen who Dylan owns. Let’s look at the top 5 TEs drafted in our league…

Gronk – 2 catches, 33 yards, 4.3 points

Jordan Reed – 5 catches, 36 yards, 6.1 points

Travis Kelce – 5 catches, 40 yards, 7.1 points

Greg Olsen – 2 catches, 18 yards (FML), 2.8 points

Jimmy Graham – 3 catches, 8 yards (?!?), 2.3 points

THIRD DOWN:

I still can’t believe Dylan got Terrance West in the 11th round, what a steal. Alex Cottone stealing bud form Ben MacArthur Sophomore year type of steal. Just brazen. Despite the fact he was clearly a starting RB and rushed for 800 yards last year, West fell really far in our draft. Terrance & Phillips West rewarded Dylan with a 17.8 point performance……sadly on his bench. While West is still on Dylan's bench in favor of Devante Adams, he’s going to be a useful bye week fill in, trade chip or depth in case anything happens. I don’t usually talk about bench players but this one stuck out to me. (Maybe trade him to Frader??)

#5: “Jakey-Jakey” Big Mistakey

FIRST DOWN:

Guy was one of two people who didn’t even get to use his first round pick this week. Unlike the other person (Keetz), Howard ended up suffering a loss. While a lack of Odell Beckham wasn’t the sole reason Jakey lost, it certainly doesn’t help to watch your first round pick sit out. (Guy lost because Ken’s team bukakked so props to Ken). The worst part is that Odell Beckham might miss Week 2 as well…… Actually, that’s not even the worst part. The WORST part is that Odell Beckham plays on Monday Night football and Guy has to make a decision before we even find out his fate. So what will he do? Currently Odell is on Guy’s bench, which is probably a smart move. Even if he plays it’d be nice to see how effective and healthy he is before actually using him. Likely going without your first round pick for two weeks…..what a bad beat. If I was Guy I would be pissed. So pissed that I’d hit a field goal net or something…..

SECOND DOWN:

I may have been wrong about Marshawn Lynch. I know, it’s extremely rare that your Commish is wrong on these types of things. Still, I’m only human and I mess up occasionally. This is what I wrote for Guy’s draft recap:

“Guy finally took a running back in the third round and it was the most “Guy” pick ever. Seriously if I had to bet who woulda taken Marshawn Lynch I 1,000,000% would have bet on Guy. To be honest, I don’t really like the pick. Marshawn hasn’t played football in nearly two years and I feel like he’s kind of a side show at this point. He has a really good offensive line and could have a high touchdown total, but drafting him in the third round is risky.”

After taking 18 carries for 76 yards and looking F.A.F. (fresh as fuck for you non-Bryant folk), Marshawn has me questioning that assessment. Perhaps I was wrong about Beast Mode.

THIRD DOWN:

Since everyone is giving me shit in the group-chat today, let’s see where else I messed up. When I wrote about Guy’s weaknesses during my draft recap, I wrote the following:  

“Guy’s RBs kinda suck, there I said it. I know Gronk will make up for some of it, but I wouldn’t feel very good going into the season with Marshawn and Gillislee as my two starters. Marshawn is definitely gonna lose some work to Deandre Washington/Jalen Richard and who knows if he’ll hold up for a full season. While Gillislee could have a big year with the Pats, there will be at least 4-5 weeks where he’s totally useless.”

……………I’m gonna put that one into the “don’t remember saying that” pile…..Overall my draft assessment for Guy is not looking too good.....