2017 George W. Bush League Draft Recaps - #1 Pick

PICK:

1ST OVERALL

TEAM:

THE STAR OF LARRY DAVID JOHNSON, owned and managed by Jon Frader.

TOP 5:

In the most serendipitous result of all time, Frader drew the first pick in this year’s draft after finishing dead last in 2016. Come to think of it I may start doing the draft order based on our league standings every year – but reverse of course. While that could promote tanking for the #1 pick, I hope everyone here has more self-pride than that. The Gabriel is the lowest of the low and for me personally it wouldn’t be worth the first pick in the next draft. I guess I can’t speak for all of you though, we’ve had some Littlefinger type dealings in this league before

Anyways Frader auto-picked the first pick overall and went with David Johnson. There really isn’t much to say here, Johnson was the best available player in the draft based on usage, team composition, age, lack of major injury history, etc etc. I will use this opportunity to make my one bold prediction – I PREDICT THAT LE’VEON BELL WILL SCORE MORE FANTASY POINTS THAN DAVID JOHNSON. Any takers?

After waiting an eternity, Frader grabbed two WRs with his second and third round picks. Both of these picks were steals in my opinion and both should be great for Larry. Brandin Cooks at 20 was a steal simply because I saw him go #11 in a draft last night. The Pats #1 wide receiver no longer has to compete with Julian Edelman for catches and should easily put up 1,000 yards and 10 TDs this year. I woudn’t be surprised if he also gets some of those jet-sweeps we run with Edelman so he can rack up points on carries/rushing yards too. Amari Cooper is a personal favorite of mine and was definitely a steal as a 3rd rounder. The third year man has 155 catches for 2,200 yards and 11 TDs in just 2 seasons.

Frader then took some high risk-high reward guys in the 4th and 5th rounds. While no one in their right mind is “high” on Lamar Miller, he’s a starting running back on a team with a good defense and bad QB. The risk is high – he could suck again. The reward could also be high – he could have a huge volume of touches to work with. Everyone’s pumping up D’Onta Foreman, but waiting for backup RBs to take the job is never a good strategy. Solid pick for Frader as his RB2.

Last but not least, Jordan Reed – the embodiment of high risk/high reward. If healthy, he’s a top 3 TE no doubt. When he inevitably misses a few games Frader will have to figure something else out. Still in the 5th round that’s pretty good. It was interesting Frader picked him over Kelce and Olsen but I’m okay with it.

NEXT 5:

Frader started off his middle rounds by grabbing Russel Wilson for his QB. While I think Wilson will be better than he was last year, I still think it was a reach. Answer me this – would you rather have Derek Carr/Marcus Mariota in the 8th round, or Wilson in the 6th round? I feel like that’s a pretty easy one. Also I kinda feel like Russel Wilson could be on the decline altogether. His style of play is so flukey and so RGIII-ish that I just don’t think it’s sustainable. Sure he’s developed somewhat as a pocket passer, but with all of his injuries and age these types of bullshit plays are gonna be less common for him:

In the 8th round Frader took some RB depth with Doug Martin. While Martin won’t play til week 5 now (FUCK YOU NFL), he’s not a bad lottery ticket type guy at that price. Frader’s team will be carried by DJ and his wide-receivers so he won’t really need a 3rd RB til the byes start hitting anyways. I will fault him for not picking up Jacquizz Rodgers as a complement to Martin, but Hurricane Irma makes that look smarter. Fuck the NFL how the hell do they push a game back THREE MONTHS.

Anyways the Star of David rounded out his middle star with three wide receivers – Emmanuel Sanders, Cameron Meredith and Sterling Shepard. We pushed the draft back as far as possible, but unfortunately it wasn’t far enough. Cam Meredith got hurt that very day and is lost for the year. Bye bye Birdy, bye bye 9th round pick.

Emmanuel Sanders in the 7th round was a solid pick and will likely be Frader’s best FLEX option heading into week 1. Sanders is underrated, but he finished as a top 25 WR last year and has three straight 1,000 yard seasons. I’m okay with that pick at this point in the draft. Last but not least, Sterling Shepard in the 10th round. Shepard has to contend with Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall for looks, but Odell is hurt and Marshall is old. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finishes as the #2 WR on the Giants this year. He gets no love for it, but Shepard caught 8 TDs last year as a rookie.

LAST 5:

Like pretty much everyone else Frader grabbed a Kicker, a Defense and some depth in the later rounds (broken record after writing 10 of these). And away we go

- Hunter Henry – grabbing a high upside TE to back up your injury prone TE was a savvy move, nicely done JayFray. Henry might not fully overtake Gates this year but he’s more than a suitable replacement should anything happen to Reed.

- Latavius Murray in the 12th was annoying – and mostly just because I have Dalvin Cook. Murray had a good year last year but it was SO lucky and was really only because of his offensive line/goal line volume. Even if/when Dalvin Cook goes down I don’t see Murray producing nearly like he did in Oakland. Keetz struck lightning last year.

- The Cardinals D in the 13th round was a nice pick, the 7th defense taken off the board. They finished as a top 5 defense last year and should easily finish top 10 this year. Patrick Peterson is a certified playmaker and the Honey Badger don't give a shit....

- Deshaun Watson in the 14th round was a wasted pick. I don’t see any reason to draft him in a 10 man league. Sorry, not buying it.

- Dustin Hopkins is fine as your kicker in the 15th round. The Redskins should put up some points but Hopkins only hit 81% of his field goals last year. Either way, low impact so whatever.

STRENGTH:

Frader’s top 3 picks are arguably the strongest trio of any team and should give him a chance to win every week. David Johnson will probably AVERAGE 25 points a game this year. Cooks will also have a huge year and could push for 1,500 receiving yards. The Pats didn’t spend a 1st round pick on him to watch him disappear for random games like some of their pass-catchers do. Amari Cooper is also a star and should see some positive TD regression this year (unless Carr continues to feed Crabtree). Overall I’d put this trio of 1-2-3 round picks over everyone else’s (Tieg would be #1 if I put Zeke in his top 3).

WEAKNESS:

While David Johnson will cover up a lot of deficiencies, Frader still has really questionable RB depth. Lamar Miller had a brutal 2016 and the sentiment is that he just isn’t very good at football. He looks hesitant when he runs and pretty much just gets 3 yards every time. Behind that is Doug Martin, who won’t play til week 5. Even then it’s no guarantee he gets the backfield all to himself. After that he has Latavius Murray, who I’m not the least bit interested in having on any of my teams. The Vikings offensive line STINKS and Cook only has a chance to produce if he makes people miss (which Murray isn’t great at doing). He did pick up Jonathan Stewart after the draft, but this is a draft recap and won’t factor into my grading – overall his RB depth as drafted sucks.

DRAFT GRADE, PREDICTION AND FINAL NOTES:

All in all I will give Frader a B+ for this draft and an 89 out of 100. While he has the best RB in fantasy (arguable/see above), I’m not gonna give him too much credit for lucking his way into the first overall pick. That said, DJ does factor in which is why Frader is in the top 4-5 of draft grade.

His wide receiver group is pretty good. I really like Cooks/Cooper and Sanders/Shepard could be great FLEX options or bye week fill-ins. I was gonna give him an A-, but the Russel Wilson pick brought him down to an 89/B+. I just think he could have gotten similar production two rounds later. I also knocked him for his poor RB depth. If David Johnson goes down this could be the worst backfield in the league.

As for a prediction, I’ll say Frader goes 7-6 and makes the playoffs, but loses in the first round. I refuse to believe we’re gonna have another “Gabriel to Champion” story this year after Lamone did it last year. I also refuse to believe that David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper will stay healthy the whole year. Frader’s team is pretty top-heavy and if anything happens to those guys he’s in a lot of trouble. The rest of his team is held together by yarmulke clips (yes, my sister just married a Jewish guy).