WEEK 5 RECAPS - PART 1 — Protector Of The League

Week 5 is in the record books and we are 5 for 5 in terms of exciting weeks. The Pats re-established their dominance over the Colts, Patrick Mahomes proved he’s pretty much matchup proof, Aaron Rodgers put up some numbers, Julio Jones still doesn’t have a TD and Adam Thielen had yet another 100 yard receiving game (best WR in the NFL, you heard it here first). Overall the scores were crazy high and without looking at the historical scores, I can guarantee you more points have been scored in the first five weeks of 2018 than any other fantasy season.

Before we get into fantasy football, I want to mention Tieg’s wedding one last time. It was an awesome weekend and I know everyone enjoyed it. Here are the highlights from my perspective:

Thursday:

We got in late so Dylan, Lamone and I missed the welcome party. Tieg and Frader weren’t butthurt at all. We made up for it by crushing 25 drinks in a 90 minute dinner while watching the Pats game at a bar nearby. Met up with Frader after and drank til 2 AM, found out Lamone doesn’t know how to play the card game Asshole (I know, wtf). Overall good night.

Friday:

Slept in, got lunch at this place on the compound. Food was delicious and we followed that up with a few hours at the pool. 84 degrees, not a cloud in the sky, wonderful.

Put on our Sunday/Friday best and headed to Tieg’s wedding - got there at 4:30. It was 80 degrees and we were wearing suits, but Tieg made us wait til 5:20 to start the “5:00 PM sharp” ceremony. Ironic because if that had been the time-line for Ken’s wedding, we wouldn’t have missed the ceremony (sorry Ken). Ceremony was really nice, not a dry eye in the house.

The reception was a blast and the band was awesome. One of the guys at our table was so drunk he missed the entire ceremony, cocktail hour and part of the reception, before showing up at 8:30. He told Tieg that he “missed the boring part of the wedding” and I’ve never seen Tieg so insulted (fair). Partied til 11, after party til 1 and I ate about 5 bags of chips after. Stay classy Commish.

Saturday:

Hungover as all hell, but started drinking at the beach party by 1 PM. The afternoon was awesome, beach was nice, water was warm, waves were crashin. Left Tieg’s at 9, drank more at the Airbnb and passed out on the couch (All-time drunk picture right there). The day was a blur but it was a ton of fun.

Sunday/Monday/Tuesday:

Dealing with 3 day hangover. I’m too old for this stuff.

That covers most of it - all in all a fun weekend. Now it’s time for some fantasy football. Every year Lamone’s favorite analyst Matthew Berry writes a draft day manifesto. In it he writes “You can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.” I don’t fully agree with that, but I think there is some truth to it. For sake of this analysis, let’s extend the premise to the first FOUR rounds. “You can’t win your league in the first FOUR rounds, but you can lose it.” It’s definitely not a science, but I think it’s fair to say, no? If you look at your first four picks, that’s probably indicative of how your season is going.

For this week’s entertainment, I’m going to look at the total points scored by each team’s first four picks. I’ll also make note of how many times the players have been in the starting roster for each team. After that I’ll indicate whether the theory/theories above hold true. It may be a little early to do this, but we’re more than 33% done with the regular season and I figured it would be interesting to look at. In reverse order of the standings:

Dalvin CooKens African Rhino: 0-5

Players: Odell Beckham, Dalvin Cook, LeSean McCoy and Golden Tate

Points: Robby D has a total of 236 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 59 points per week, or about 15 points per player per week.

Starts: Robby D has 15 starts out of 20 possible between these guys. Cook has missed 2 games with injury and McCoy has been benched twice. This ranks in the middle of the league, so not much to take from that stat.

Analysis: As for points - 15 per guy per week doesn’t sound bad, but its bottom 3 in the league. Cook and McCoy have been total busts, which is why Rob D is towards the bottom of the league in points and last in the standings. The theory holds so far.

You Done Messed Up A A Ron!: 2-3

Players: DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers.

Points: Frader has a total of 364 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 91 points per week, or about 23 points per player per week.

Starts: Frader has 18 starts out of 20 between the 4 players. He sat Rodgers this past week (go figure his best week) and Jordan Howard had a bye. This is towards the top of the league, while Frader is close to the bottom of the standings. Once again not much to take from here.

Analysis: For the points - if you take out replacements (ie handcuffs), this is 2nd best in the league. I’m already seeing holes in this theory, BUT let’s add in the two handcuffs (more on this later). If you add in handcuffs who replaced top 4 picks, this drops to 3rd in the league. Ehh, I think we’re 1 for 2 on the theory.

Zeke-A-Tyreek: 2-3

Players: Zeke Elliott, Devonta Freeman, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin

Points: Keetz has a total of 235.8 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 59 points per week, or about 15 points per player per week.

Starts: Keetz has only 13 starts out of a possible 20 which is last in the league. This is mainly caused by Doug Baldwin, who he’s only started once (sat him twice and missed 2 games with injury). He’s also only had 2 starts out of Devonta Freeman due to 2 injury weeks and 1 benching.

Analysis: This is actually the lowest collective total from any team’s first four picks. It’s also the lowest number of starts for any team as I mentioned above. The theory holds up here: Keetz is bottom 3 in the standings and bottom 3 in our analysis. 2 for 3 so far. (Although I don’t think anyone believes Keetz will finish this low in the standings – let’s be real.)

DeAngelo Vickers: 2-3

Players: Todd Gurley, Rob Gronkowski, Davante Adams and Derrick Henry

Points: Guy has a total of 329.6 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 82 points per week, or about 21 points per player per week.

Starts: Guy has started these guys 16 out of a possible 20. That ranks just about in the middle of our league, but it’s completely Derrick Henry-related. Guy has only started his 4th round pick once this year (with good reason). Again, not much going on here.

Analysis: When you add in handcuffs (more on this later), Guy ranks 5th in the league in total points for their top 4 picks. Guy’s team is a mixed bag though. Gurley (RB1) and Adams (WR6) have been great, but Gronk (TE6) and Henry (RB44) have been busts. I’d say Guy’s 7th place standing has more to do with his points against than these guys – Guy has 702 points against which is most in the league and or 140 (holy shit) per week. Let’s call this a push because there are other factors at play. 2 for 3 on the analysis.

SLAMMY TWATSKiNS: 3-2

Players: David Johnson, Keenan Allen, Jerick McKinnon, Demaryius Thomas.

Points: Lamone has a total of 201 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 50 points per week, or about 13 points per player per week. This is dead-last in the league, so this blows the theory right? Not so fast – let’s go back to the handcuffs I talked about earlier. If you replace McKinnon with Matt Breida, Lamone moves up to 8th in the league (69 per week, 17 per player per week).

Starts: If you include McKinnon, Lamone only has 15 starts out of 20 from these four. If you add Breida in for McKinnon, that goes up to 18 starts. Sadly not much here either.

Analysis: He’s 8th in our analysis, which is somewhat close to his 6th place standing. That being said, I have to mention Lamone’s points against. He has by far the fewest in the league at 523, or 105 per week. Guys’ opponents score 35 points more than that each week, NBD. Again, given the odd circumstance, I call this a push. I’ll say we’re 3 for 5 so far. (Correct on Rob D/Keetz, Wrong on Frader, Half Correct on Guy/Lamone.)

Kens African Safari: 3-2

Players: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Joe Mixon, Adam Thielen

Points: Ken has a total of 339.5 points from his top 4 guys, which equates to 85 points per week, or about 21 points per player per week.

Starts: Ken has started his top 4 players 18 times out of 20 which is 2nd best in the league. Aside from 2 Joe Mixon absences, everyone has been active every week. I’m starting to think it was too early to do this “starts” portion of it.

Analysis: This is 4th best in the league, while Ken’s record puts him at 5th place. I say that’s a win for the theory, 4 for 6 thus far. This is really pumped up by Adam Thielen’s huge year (WR1), but Brown and Julio are WR8 and WR16 at press time.