DRAFT RECAPS - 9TH PICK

9TH PICK: KENS AFRICAN SAFARI – KENNY PEABS:

Rounds 1-5:

The 9th pick presented the same dilemma I had – take the talented WRs or reach a bit for one of the RBs? Ken did what I probably should have done and split the baby - taking one of each. Gurley at 9 sounds like a steal, but the injury concerns are serious. He really broke down last year when his knee acted up and was a shell of himself down the stretch. From what I’ve seen he isn’t allowed to practice on back-to-back days and they fully plan to limit his workload. The flip side is that IF he is healthy there is league-winning upside here. He still scored 21 TDs last year and plays on the 2nd best offense in football. In the 2nd round Ken went with someone who plays on THE best offense in football – Tyreek Hill. Hill was WR1 last year and could absolutely repeat that statline of 1,600 total yards and 13 TDs. There’s no denying he’s a scumbag, but “judge not lest he be judged” and all of that.

Ken took a trip to the NFC North in the 3rd/4th rounds and took Aaron Jones and Adam Thielen. I don’t like the Jones pick, not gonna lie. The Packers are borderline dysfunctional and play in a division with 2 of the best defenses in football (Bears/Vikes)… and the third is pretty good as well (Lions). His schedule to open the season is brutal and I could see him disappointing his owners.  Thielen was Kenny’s stud WR last year and he double dipped. He might not repeat the 113/1300/9 from last year, but he could go 100/1100/7 pretty easily.

Kenny rounded out his top 5 with Aaron Rodgers and you can copy/paste everything I said about Aaron Jones here. Rodgers gets a bump due to our favorable QB scoring (pp-completion), but I feel like he’s become a malcontent in his later years. This could be a great pick for Ken or it could end in disappointment like it did for everyone who picked Rodgers last year.

Rounds 6-10:

Ken filled out his roster and accumulated flex depth by drafting 3 WRs, a TE and an RB in the middle rounds. I like the Evan Engram pick in the 6th round. He’s a little injury prone, but he should be a top 6 TE at a very reasonable cost. 60-70 catches, 700-800 yards and 6 TDs is a conservative estimate.

Ken took one of my handcuffs in Round 9 when he took Rashaad Penny. By all accounts Chris Carson has outplayed him this preseason and will carry the load, but there’s sleeper value here. If Carson gets hurt or Penny flashes that talent that led to him being a 1st round pick in the draft Ken will look like a genius.

The trio of WRs Ken took were Mike Williams (7th), Marvin Jones (8th) and Courtland Sutton (10th). Williams is coming off a huge season where he scored 10 TDs and could really break out this year. The cost and the upside are in line with one another so no arguments from me. Marvin Jones in the 8th is a little interesting, but I feel like Kenny has him every year. There’s no denying Jones’ talent but he’s had trouble staying healthy. Last but not least – Sutton. He quietly had a solid rookie season with 700 yards receiving and could be a breakout depending on how Flacco plays. As a 5th receiver there’s no downside here.

Rounds 11-15:

Kenny was the 3rd person to take a defense (Jags, 11th round) and the 2nd to take a kicker (Justin Tucker, 12th round) so he’s strong in both areas. The Jags will be much better than they were last season and their rookie Josh Allen is a freak.

Justin Tucker is a top 5 kicker every year so no issues with that pick. Kicker scoring is dulled down in our league so it’s not as impactful as other leagues.

He finished his draft with Trey Burton, Dak Prescott and Dion Lewis. Trey Burton is a backup TE for Ken and I think it’s a solid pick. He was supposed to be a breakout with the Bears last year, but never really got it going outside of 1 massive game against the Pats. Dak Prescott was a throwaway pick so I won’t waste your time – he’ll be the first to go come roster cuts.

I really like the Dion Lewis pick, this was a great value in the last round. Derrick Henry is supposed to be the Titans #1 back, but Lewis will get his touches and could turn into a top 20RB if Henry struggles again or gets hurt. Ken’s RB depth would look a lot worst without Lewis. 

Grade: B

I like Ken’s team, but I wouldn’t say I love it. Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen and Engram are great picks so kudos there. The Aaron Jones/Aaron Rodgers combo is a little bit counterproductive in my opinion though – it’s not as bad as if he took Davante Adams/Jones, but theoretically Rodgers/Jones take away from each other’s production. Both players are talented so it could work out…. I just wouldn’t have picked that way. Ken has great WR depth and the Dion Lewis pick helps alleviate the concerns at RB. The Todd Gurley pick is really what will determine the fate of this draft, so stay tuned.

Prediction:

I say Ken goes 7-6 and loses in the first round of the playoffs. His team is balanced and has a ton of upside – Gurley at 9 is great, Tyreek can win you weeks by himself and Rodgers is a top 3 QB in fantasy (usually). There are troubling concerns though: Gurley’s knee, the Packers schedule, his questionable RB depth, the fact Evan Engram hasn’t had a good season yet, etc. I think it’s a competitive team but not a league winner.