DRAFT RECAPS - 10TH PICK
10TH PICK: THE PERMIAN PANTHERS – COMMISH:
Rounds 1-5:
The 10th pick was pretty shitty this year, not gonna lie. In an RB-dominated league, the clear value was at WR in the 10 range and it put me in a predicament – go with “best player available” strategy and go WRs early? Or go with the more format-friendly RBs early? I decided to go RB-RB and went with Mixon and Chubb. The Mixon pick was a combination of talent and workload. He’s an awesome RB and produced great numbers last year – 1,200 yards on 280+ touches and 9 total TDs. His offensive line sucks but I’m hoping for 1,300 total yards on 300 touches and 10 TDs.
The Chubb pick was more of a “I like the situation pick”. I wanted some exposure to the Browns offense and who better than their clear-cut bell-cow back? The 1,100 yards and 10 TDs from last year should be the baseline expectation. The Kareem Hunt thing is obnoxious, but I’ll worry about that in Week 10 when he’s back.
I went Zach Ertz and Chris Carson at the 3-4 turn and I’m torn on these ones. On one hand Ertz had 116 catches last year and is a top 3 TE – I should have an advantage just about every week at the TE position. On the other hand it’s a TE in the third round… not always a recipe for success. The Carson pick was great from a talent perspective but I probably should have gone WR here. He ran for the 5th most yards last year and is on a run-heavy team so I’m hoping he’s a workhorse for me. If nothing else, he provides a really good backup plan if something happens to Mixon or Chubb.
The 5th round is where I started to address the weakness on my team – WR. Tyler Boyd was a breakout last year and I’m not sold on AJ Green’s health, so fingers crossed. He was a top 20 WR last year and I’ll be happy if he meets that mark again. This is definitely a make or break pick for me though.
Rounds 6-10:
I went back to the WR pool to kick off the 6th round and took Josh Gordon. This pick is either going to work wonderfully or totally blow up in my face. If he’s the #1 WR for the Pats he could put up monster numbers…. But if his demons come back he’ll be a monster bust. In hindsight this was a terrible pick as Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin went immediately after – I’d rather have either of them right now.
I continued to fill out my FLEX depth with 3 of my next four picks by taking Emmanuel Sanders, Tevin Coleman and Corey Davis. Sanders was productive for me last year but tore his achilles late in the season. He’s looked great in the preseason so I’m hoping he’s just a freak of nature and is legitimately healthy. The Corey Davis pick probably won’t work out but taking him in the 10th round was a fair price to pay. I quote this almost every year, but we have to remember that he was a top 10 pick in the draft and scored 23 TDs his senior year of college. The potential is there.
Tevin Coleman is an interesting pick – I took him at 70th overall and I’ve seen him going in the 5th/6th round in some drafts. There’s a chance he’s the #1 RB in San Fran but the Shanahans are notoriously obnoxious with RBs…. Looking at you Raheem Mostert. As a 4th RB I feel okay about him.
My favorite pick from this range was Cam Newton in the 9th round. He got dinged up in the preseason game but it doesn’t appear to be serious and I’m willing to take the risk at that price. If he’s right then he’s capable of 30 point games no problem.
Rounds 11-15:
I took some Cam insurance in the 11th round with Lamar Jackson. He scored 20+ in 6 of his 7 starts last year and could put up crazy rushing numbers. I may start him Week 1 so we’ll see pretty early if this was a good pick.
I filled out my specialists by taking Greg the Leg Zeurlein, the Pats D and the Cowboys D. Zeurlein should be the #1 kicker and I wanted some exposure to the Rams offense. As for defense - the Cowboys have some good matchups early so that’s a temporary thing and they’ll prob be my first cut when byes come around. I love the Pats D pick though - this is the same D that held the Rams to 3 points in the Super Bowl and we got Jamie Collins back. I’m hoping for big things.
My last pick was Justin Jackson of the Chargers. If Melvin Gordon really pulls a Leveon then this could be a HUGE pick. Ekeler would of course start out as the #1 but he’s not a typical feature back and was injury prone last year. If I get the Chargers starting RB in the 15th round that’s a win win win win win.
Grade: C-
My team is very strong at RB and I have a top 3 TE, but that’s not enough to offset the gaping hole at WR. If this was a 12 man league I’d still think my WRs are weak and this is obviously a 10 man league so….. yeah. Not only that but there are legitimate concerns with most of my picks. My first pick is on a bad team with a bad line and my second pick might lose his job when Kareem Hunt comes back. My third pick was a TE on an offense that spreads the ball around and my 4th pick doesn’t have much of a track record (and has a former first round pick breathing down his neck). I do like some things about my team, but I really dropped the ball at WR….. pun intended.
Prediction:
I predict I’ll go 4-9 and miss out on the playoffs. I got extremely lucky last year in terms of scoring, injuries and breakout players and I think that swings back the other way a bit. My team last year was honestly the best team ever assembled in this league despite the assfuck of a result in the championship. It’s hard to get that lucky twice in a row and for that reason I think this is gonna be a long season for me.
