Week 7 Recaps - Matchup 2 and Matchup 3

Matchup 2: Kens 20 Min Backroad Brisket wins 126.5 to 115.3:

1. We learned Matt Jones is going to fwustwate fantasy owners all year. He’s a boom or bust running back who can kill you one week but help you win the next week. This week he killed you, with just 10 carries for 27 yards. That minimal activity only amounted to 2.7 points. To make matters worse, he lost a goal line fumble. That’s an 8 point swing which is pretty brutal for an RB. He likely would have gotten more work the rest of the game if that didn’t happen, so it’s extra fwustwating.

Jones has done this all year. He’s good for one or two weeks, but right when you trust him he kills you. Through 7 weeks, he has 3 games of 7 points or fewer and has 3 games of 15 points or more. The only game in between was a 12 point performance in Week 3. Consistency is a virtue in fantasy and Jones doesn’t really provide that. That’s not saying he’s not good, the problem is he’s just as liable to put up 5 points as he is to put up 20.

Ultimately, Matt Jones is the most talented RB on that roster. Robert Kelley is a solid young player and Chris Thompson is a good receiving/change of pace back, but Jones should be getting all the carries. Barring injury or more untimely fumbles, he probably will. Just know that he’ll burn you sometimes. 

2. We learned Gio Bernard is the clear cut, unquestioned starting running back for the Cincinnati Bengals. There’s no timeshare, there is no thunder and lightning, there is no hot-hand approach. There is RB1 Gio and the backup Jeremy Hill. It doesn’t matter if Hill is playing well, or if Hill is playing poorly. Gio Bernard is the starter in that backfield. He’s the starter on the Bengals and he should be a starter on all fantasy teams. He has taken the job from Jeremy Hill and told him to fuck yo couch.

For the third consecutive week, Gio received more carries than Hill. In fact, Gio has averaged 16 carries per week the last two games and has averaged 17 touches per game the last three weeks. Even though Hill had a monster day on Sunday and the game was out of hand, Gio received 17 carries to Hill’s 9.

The best part for Gio owners is that he got the goal-line work for the second consecutive week. Gio got shut down by the Pats in a short yardage situation during their last game, but the Bengals went back to him in that situation this game. He responded with a 5 yard touchdown run and Jeremy Hill owners everywhere cried. He’s turning out to be a solid steal for Robby D after being drafted in the 7th round.

3. We also learned Jacquizz Rodgers is going to have value even when Doug Martin returns. Rodgers had another HUGE fantasy day this weekend, scoring 25 points on 154 yards rushing. After getting 30 carries in his last game, he received another 26 this week. Check my math on this, but Rodgers has 56 carries over his last two games. For comparison, Jay Play the Lottery Lamone Ajayi has only 53 carries over his last two games. In a league that rewards points for carries, Rodgers has been a stud.

So as I said, Rodgers will have value even if/when Martin returns. How? Well, Charles Sims had value when Martin was rushing for 1,400 yards last year. Also, it’s apparent the Bucs love Rodgers and as a result, will likely keep him involved. Further, Martin re-injured his hamstring and could miss a few more games. Lastly, Doug Martin didn’t even look good when he did play this year. It’s a small sample size, but Martin only had 25 carries for 85 yards in the two games he played. Regardless of what happens with Doug Martin, Rodgers should have value going forward.  

Matchup 2: Can I Diggs It? Yes You Can loses 115.3 to 126.5:

1. We learned that the Steelers run defense is absolutely pitiful. A week after allowing 200 yards to Gay Ajayi, they allowed 127 and two touchdowns to LeGarrette Blount. Overall, the Patriots rushed 29 times for 140 yards and the two Blount TDs. Tom Brady had at least 3 first downs rushing and while I love Tom with all of my heart, he’s not exactly known as a running quarterback. The Patriots surprisingly only ran 55 plays - 29 rushes over 55 total plays is more than 50%. The Patriots always know which weaknesses to attack, so it speaks volumes that they decided to be a run-heavy team in this game.

We learned that the Steelers run defense sucks, but we also learned that LeGarrette Blount could be a top 10 RB the rest of the year. When Tom came back, I thought Blount would suffer. I thought his carries would slip and he’d be a boom or bust guy. As with many things, I was incorrect in that assumption. Since Tom has been back, Blount is averaging 18 carries for 71 yards per game. Those 18 carries are nearly 4 points in this league. He’s also scored 4 touchdowns in the 3 games Brady has played. The Pats get into the red zone a lot and Blount gets ALL of our goal line work. Those 4 touchdowns have been runs of 1 yard, 1 yard, 3 yards and 5 yards. I could take this opportunity to complain that Blount is Mike Tolberting Tom Brady and my team, but I love the Pats no matter how they score.

2. Rob Gonkowski is officially back and will be the #1 TE in fantasy the rest of the year. That’s not exactly a ground breaking discovery, but it’s now official. Since Tom’s triumphant return, Gronk has scored 15.4, 27.7 and 17.3 points in the last three games. He’s scored two TDs and he’s gotten tackled within the 10 yard line on a number of occasions. I could take this opportunity to say that those should be Tom Brady touchdowns, but I love the Pats no matter how they score.

One thing I didn’t learn was what the Patriots were doing with their TEs. Gronk’s usage was really weird this week - there were a number of occasions where he was taken off the field on both running and passing plays. Generally the Patriots love to use double TE sets, but something seemed off this game. Both Martellus Bennett and Gronk didn’t play as many snaps as they had in previous games and like Gronk, Martellus was inexplicably off the field on various plays. By the numbers, Gronk only played on 53% of snaps and Bennett only played on 30.5% of snaps. Interesting.

Maybe it was something they saw in Pittsburgh’s defense, maybe it was because they knew they’d win the game and wanted to rest both players. Either way, it was really weird. If Gronk hadn’t caught a long TE in the third quarter, both TEs would have had low scoring days (Bennett scored just 1 point this week). Still, Gronk did have that long TD and is the best TE in football.

3. Russel Wilson will not pay dividends for fantasy football owners this year. I said this last week in the start em/sit em, but he has to be on your bench. It’s not that he’s a bad QB, he’s just hurt. He’s not himself. He’s played admirably through the two injuries, but he just isn’t the same guy. He’s not rushing for any yardage or touchdowns and in general, the Seahawks offense has been pretty bad this year. Through 7 weeks, they rank 28th in rushing yards and 21st in passing yards. Overall, just not a very good offense.

Back to Wilson. He hasn’t been a bad player, but he hasn’t been a good fantasy quarterback. After 7 weeks, he’s ranked as the #23rd QB in scoring. He only has one game with more than 16 points and he hasn’t accounted for a touchdown since Week 4. In the last three weeks, Russel Wilson has not scored a touchdown rushing or passing. That’s not good, not good at all. He’s still throwing for a decent amount of yards (260 per game), but the lack of touchdowns is just brutal.

This brings me to an interesting conundrum. Do professional athletes get worse when they get married? Personally, I think it’s harder to focus on your career when you are in a relationship. I guess Russel Wilson was married when he won the Super Bowl, so this point may be moot. Just something to ponder since he got married right before the season.

Matchup 3: Gurley’s Gone won 125.1 to 120.4:

1. Ken is not going to go winless this year. He has officially broken the streak and now stands at 1-6 after 7 weeks. He still could get the Sacko, but at least he won a game. A small victory, but a victory nonetheless.

So how do we think Ken will do the rest of the season? He’s got matchups against 3 of the top 4 teams, so let’s say he goes 1-2 there. He’ll likely lose to FLACCOPiAN TUBES and Pure Taige, but he’ll beat me because my teams always fade down the stretch. He then plays a trio of 3-4 teams - Dylan this week then Keetz in week 9 before taking on Guy in week 13. I say he goes 2-1 there and ends the season at 4-9. Ultimately, I say he goes .500 the rest of the way.

So why will things turn around? Because his team is starting to look pretty good. Brees is solid at QB and he has Kirk to play based on matchups. Somehow, someway through trades he has acquired three RB1s - Spencer Ware, Christine Michael and Mark Ingram. I gave him Ware, but that was because I thought Jamaal Charles was coming back. Not really sure why Dylan gave him Ingram and Michael. He’s kinda weak at WR though – Golden Taint and Demaryius Thomas. Both have upside, but both have their downfalls. Overall the squad is looking much better than a 1-6 team. 

2. Speaking of Spencer Ware, we learned that he is going to be the starting RB in this backfield for the foreseeable future. It seems like Charles had a set back last week, experiencing swelling in his leg. As a result, he saw just 1 carry while Spencer Ware received 17. Ware turned his 17 carries and 2 catches into 131 yards and a TD. I saw a stat somewhere that said Ware has now scored a touchdown on a play longer than 40 yards in 4 straight games. Or maybe 4 separate times this season? I don’t know, I’m too lazy to dig it up.

Either way, Spencer Ware is for real. He’s the 9th ranked RB in scoring for our league, with 121 points on the year. The Chiefs have already had their bye, so he’ll rise up the rankings as the year goes on. Also, he’s just been so damn efficient. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry on his 95 attempts. If you look at his receiving numbers, it sticks out even more. He’s averaging 19 yards per reception – 15 catches for 285 yards. Holy shit. Ware is an RB1 and I’m an idiot for trading him to Ken. Sweet.

3. We learned that you can still win if your defense scores negative points. You heard me, Ken’s defense scored -1 point and he still won. His defense was the Bills and to be honest, losing just one point was a favorable outcome. If you allow Jay Ajayi to run for more than 200 yards against you, you should get negative ten points. As you can tell, I am still pissed right off about that bullshit.

Moving on to the next point – defensive scoring. I’ve received a lot of flack this year for the scoring. It’s too low, defenses don’t put up enough, they don’t make a difference. While some of those things are true, there’s a reason. Let me ask you a hypothetical question – would you rather lose because your opponent’s running back scored 40 points, or because your opponent’s defense scored 17? I don’t know about you, but I’d rather lose to a team with a good running back than a team who started a flukey defense and got 20 points out of them. In another league I play in, the scoring is like our old system. This week, I lost by 25 points. That looks really bad, but it was strictly due to kickers and defense. The guy I played got 31 points from his kicker and D, while I got 1 from my Kicker and D combined. My skill players outscored his, but his kicker and D beat me. That’s why our kicker and D scoring are low.

Matchup 3: Broke Back Caleb loses 120.4 to 125.1:

1. Broke Back Caleb now has the longest active losing streak of any team in the league. After coming out hot and winning his first three games, he’s now lost four straight and finds himself in 6th place. It’s not all bad - if the season ended today, his team would make the playoffs. There is some bad though – it seems like his luck of seasons past is coming back to haunt him.

So what happened? Well, his opponents are scoring a lot of points. Over the last 4 games, Kev’s opponents are scoring over 127 points per game. That’s not that high, but the lowest anyone has scored against him in the last four weeks is 120.6. So Kev would have had to score at least 121 every week if he wanted to win any of his games. For reference, 121 would have beat 5 teams this week. The other thing is that he’s just not scoring many points. During his three game win streak he averaged 133 points per week. During his 4 game losing streak, he’s only averaging 113. That’s not that bad, but remember, the scoring in this league is very generous.

Ultimately, he’s also had some bad luck. He lost his week 6 matchup by 1.6 points. That’s 16 total yards across his entire roster. If each skill player on his roster had 3 extra yards rushing or receiving, he would have won. His week 7 matchup wasn’t as heart breaking, but it was still bad. He lost by 4.7 points this past week, which again is just 47 yards across his whole lineup. If Demaryius Thomas didn’t catch a TD pass on Monday Night football, he would have won. Hopefully for Kev’s sake this luck turns around, the league standings are closer than they look.

2. Melvin Gordon is not going to regress after a hot start to the season. During his first four games, he averaged 22.87 points per week. He scored 6 TDs in the first four games, and he was on fire.

Then weeks 5 and 6 came – where we saw his average points dip down to 15 per week. He only scored 1 TD in those two weeks and I was worried he was hitting a wall. It seemed like he could turn into one of those guys who wins you matchups early in the season, but loses you matchups later in the season as you stubbornly continue to start him. He had such a bad rookie season, everyone was just waiting for the fall.

Well the fall didn’t come, the exact opposite happened. He exploded for 37.5 points in week 7, ranking as the second highest scoring player in all of fantasy. He received 20+ carries for the third time this season and had season highs in receiving with 6 catches for 53 yards. The best part? He scored three touchdowns. Through 7 weeks, he has scored 8 rushing and 2 receiving TDs - 10 total. That’s the most in the NFL and the same amount as the Houston Texans have scored ALL SEASON. Let that sink in. Melvin Gordon has scored as many TDs as the Texans have all year. He is going to be a top 5 RB the rest of the way, so enjoy it Kev.

3. Tyler Eifert is almost back, which is bad news for the rest of us. Eifert was a freak last year, catching 13 touchdowns on 52 catches for 615 yards. For those of you who don’t like to do math, he caught a touchdown once every 4 catches. That rate is just ridiculous and shows you how much of a weapon he is. So why did he suck this week? Because they were killing the Browns and they didn’t need him. Because they’re still easing him back. Does that mean he’ll be slow all year? No, look at what Gronk’s done the last few weeks after doing literally nothing the first four weeks.

Andy Dalton is having a great season, AJ Green will take a ton of coverage away and they have a solid running game. All reasons why Tyler Eifert is due for a big second half. Kev has been patient with his 10th round pick and the fruits of his labor will be realized soon. Just wait.