2017 NFL Draft - Fantasy Implications
Gentlemen,
As you all know, the NFL Draft is my favorite sporting event of the year. March Madness is close, but I love football way more than I could ever like basketball. The Draft just has so much to offer. First, any draft is cool. I don't care if you're drafting for fantasy football, drafting pieces of calzone (Luma back me up) or drafting for a real pro team. It doesn't matter what it is, drafts are fun. Second, it's a really awesome event for the players. Thirty two guys will realize their dreams tonight. Dreams they've probably had since they were in elementary school. Last but not least, the excitement. Every player picked tonight will be the next franchise quarterback, the next shut-down corner or the next 10 year bookend tackle. While most of them won't reach the lofty expectations, it's still cool to get excited about for a few days. There are so many things to like about the draft and I didn't even mention Mel Kipaahhh Juniah or Bill Belichick's uncanny ability to swindle other teams.
Which brings me to this post - it's been a while since I've published anything, but in the spirit of the NFL Draft I thought it was a good time to do so. I'm going to outline the 10-11 guys who could make the largest impact on fantasy rosters in 2017. Although most of these guys won't have fantasy impact, there are some definite players who will. If you think it's too early to think about fantasy football, you would be wrong. It's never too early.
1. Leonard Fournette:
Fournette is arguably the #1 offensive player in the draft and could have a huge impact in fantasy. I don't think he'll be a Zeke, but he could easily be a 1,000 yard-10 TD guy. He weighs 240 and ran a 4.51 at the combine. I've seen him going to the Jaguars at #4 in a lot of mock drafts, which does and doesn't make sense. (Bortles needs help, but they already have Ivory/Yeldon).
Offenses are changing in the NFL, which scares some teams - Fournette really only works out of the I or single back formation. Regardless, Fournette will still be a high pick. See the video for proof.
In terms of our league, I think he'll go in the 5th to 6th round range, assuming he takes a prominent role. If he's getting 15-20 carries a game, he'll do some damage.
2. Christian McCaffrey:
Do you believe in miracles? If you don't, then tune in tonight. For the first time since 1923 (maybe), a white running back will go in the first round - Lavar Ball be damned. In fact, if the rumors are true, he could potentially go BEFORE Leonard Fournette. He's more suited to the modern NFL passing game (shotgun heavy/spread) and the Patriots have shown the NFL world how important pass-catching backs are.
If he doesn't go before Fournette, he won't last past the Panthers at #8. Imagine Cam Newton and McCaffrey in the same backfield..... scary. While he won't take on a feature role, he can easily become a Theo Riddick type - 100 carries, 75 catches and 1,500 total yards. And yes, I just worked in a Theo Rat-Dick reference. Rat Dick City.
I think he'll go in the 6th-7th round of our draft. He won't be a full time starter, but the upside is undeniable. I could very easily see him getting 15-18 touches a game between rushes, receptions and returns.
3. O.J. Howard:
The first name on the list that people may not have heard of. OJ Howard is a tight end from Alabama and could go off the board in the first 6 picks. The Jets pick at 6 and they really need some offensive weapons - the problem is they don't know how to use TEs. If not top 10 then he'll definitely be top 12.
Landing spot aside, Howard is a complete tight end (that's what she said). He can block really well and has good hands. If you thought Fournette was a freak, check these numbers out - 6 foot 6, 250 and a 4.51 forty. Pretty much the same speed as Fournette, but he is 10 pounds heavier and 6 inches taller.
Rookie tight ends don't usually have a ton of success in the NFL, but he could be an exception. The tight end position is garbage past the first 5-7 guys, so he will definitely be drafted in our league this year (expected 10-12th round).
4. Mike Williams:
Here we have another star Clemson wide receiver following in the footsteps of Ken's favorite player (Sammy Watkins), DeAndre Hopkins and Martavis Bryant University. The rookie wide receivers SUCKED last year, but I think Williams will change that trend this year. Last fall he caught 80+ passes for 1,100 yards and 10 TDs. Given the right opportunity, I think he can come close to those numbers in his rookie year (60 catches, 800 yards, 6 TDs would be a safe projection).
He reminds me a lot of AJ Green coming out of Georgia and his highlight reel speaks for itself. He could go as high as 7 to the Chargers (really need a WR), but he could potentially slide to the early 20's. I'd say somewhere in between. In our draft he'd likely be in the 8-10 round range.
5. Corey Davis:
If any of you have heard of this guy, I'll be surprised. Not many people know about the Western Michigan product, but you'll know his name soon enough. Even though I listed Mike Williams first, it seems as though Davis is more highly regarded. That's what happens when you have 1,500 yards and 19 gronk spikes during your senior season. He's also got a proven track record - he was a 4 year starter and had 52 total touchdowns in his career.
For rookie expectations, it's tough. Rookie WR's are always hit or miss. Depending on where he lands, it could easily be a 75 catch, 1,000 yard season. Where will he land? Somewhere in between 10 and 20. In that range, the following teams need WR help: Cardinals, Eagles, Ravens, Redskins and Titans. I really like the sound of him going to the Titans at 18 overall. Give Marcus Mariota a legit #1 receiver and we could have something special. He likely won't be drafted until the later rounds in our league, but he could be like Michael Thomas was in 2016.
6. John Ross:
This is a guy you probably do know of - the fastest man at the combine. Ross ran a 4.22 back in March which really put him into the spotlight. Aside from his combine performance, he had a really nice season at Washington - 80 catches, 1,100 yards, 17 TDs.
Ross projects as a slot guy due to his small frame (5-10, 188), which is a role he played in college. I picture him as something like a Desean Jackson or even a Tavon Austin (Ross also had 100 yards rushing and a rush TD this year). Like with Davis, he'll likely go in the teens of this year's draft and those same teams are in play. The order of these WRs could go in any direction though, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him go before Williams or Davis.
As for fantasy, he likely won't be more than a 12th round pick or so. Comparing him to Sterling Shepard is fair I think. Shepard tore it up in the preseason went around there in our draft (I can't confirm cuz ESPN fantasy football is down). For now, let's enjoy the 40 time:
7. Dalvin Cook:
Cook is the third highest RB on the board and he is likely to go in the first round. He's a speedy Devonta Freeman/Jamal Charles type who can really change a game. I've seen him go as high as 19 to the Bucs, while he never lasts past the Chiefs at 27 (looking to replace Charles). Size and blocking ability are concerns, but he's explosive and is a true "home-run hitter".
If he gets a prominent role in the NFL, he could go in the 9-10 round range of our draft. Best case scenario, he's a Devonta Freeman. Worst case scenario he's a 3rd down type guy who you could use in the flex (think Charles Sims).
8. David Njoku:
Njoku was a riser through the draft process. The tight end from the U had a great season, but it didn't get national attention - 42 catches, 700 yards, 8 TDs. Despite that, he's risen fast and could possibly go off the board as high as #20. I know the Giants are interested in him and if he falls to 23 that would be their pick. It's a shame, but he'd be the TE Eli Manning hasn't had since Shockey.
Njoku would likely go undrafted in our league, but it's possible someone would take a flier. The likely scenario is he goes undrafted and is picked up early in the season if he produces. As I mentioned before, the tight end position sucks so he will definitely be on the radar. One of his best talents is run-after-the catch, as evidenced by the stiff-arm below.
9. Alvin Kamara:
Kamara has been rising lately due to his pro-day. Apparently he looked really good in his drills (duh, they're scripted to his strengths) and can pretty much do it all - run, catch, pass-block. He doesn't have the hype that Fournette/McCaffrey do, but that's due to his unique story. He started at Alabama, but got kicked off the team. He then went to community college and tore it up. After that he landed at Tennessee and performed really well.
He'll likely be a second round pick this weekend, but that doesn't mean he won't be fantasy relevant - let's not forget that Le'Veon Bell was a 2nd round pick. His ability to play on third down and his reputation for pass-blocking will definitely land him somewhere and give him an opportunity. I've seen him going to the Packers at the end of the first round, which would be sick. He'd definitely be drafted in our league if that were to happen.
10. Evan Engram:
Engram is a tight end out of Ole Miss, but unlike most college TE's he was a focal point of the offense. He caught 65 passes for 900 yards and 8 TDs in 2016. While those numbers are good, it's his measurables that make him really attractive. He's a solid 6-3, 235 and he ran a 4.42 in the forty. If you are still reading, you'll remember that this is faster than Leonard Fournette or Mike Williams ran. It's also faster than Christian McCaffrey ran, no big deal.
The size/speed combo makes him a real option for teams in the second round. Like with everything, the Pats showed the league how important athletic TEs are. Unfortunately the Pats don't pick til 72, so there is no way we'll get him. He compares to Vernon Davis, which is high praise.
Ultimately he'll be like Njoku in our league - undrafted, but on everyone's radar. Depending on role/usage he could be a huge steal in fantasy.
11. Joe Mixon:
You've probably heard of this guy. He's been compared to AP and has serious skill, but he also knocked out a girl ON CAMERA. It was before he actually played for OU and he was young, but it's still inexcusable. Also - it definitely didn't help she was a white blonde girl. Due to that, he was suspended for the entire 2014 football season. That was a while ago, but he's gone from a sure-fire first rounder to a day 2 pick because of it. A few months ago it sounded like he'd go no earlier than the 4th round, but now it seems like he could go as high as the 2nd. It's always hard to tell with these "red-flag" guys, you never know what could happen.
In terms of ability, he's a well rounded player. He's 6-1, 230 and ran a hair under 4.50 for his 40 time. Like Kamara, he can pass block and catch passes. He really would be a high draft pick if it weren't for the incident. Honestly, he could end up being the best RB in this class.
In our league, he likely won't be drafted. Just don't be surprised if he ends up a starter on the team that drafts him.
