2017 GW Bush League Entertainment - Week 2 (Part 1)

Gentlemen and Week 2 League Leading Scorer Kev O’Connell,

Just like that, we’re back for Week 2 entertainment. Another set of games were played and more players were injured while even more players made me shake my head in disgust. Through two weeks our league has seen some interesting things and some really unpredictable things. There have been some big starts and there have been even more slow starts. It’s hard not to overreact to two weeks, but we have to remember – it’s only been two weeks. We still have 11 weeks of regular season and 14 weeks if you include playoffs.

While I said it’s early, we still need to analyze the things that have happened. We can’t just look at where a guy was drafted and assume he’ll perform to that level. Things change and we must adapt. Expectations can be raised, expectations must be lowered, that sorta thing. All of that leads us into our Week 2 recaps. This week I’m going to take a look at some players from each team and try to guess whether their start is real or fake. It this legitimate and repeatable? Or is this a fugayzi, a fugazi, a wazzy or a woozy. I’ll try to draw on the data, but some of these will be gut-calls.

We’ll also try to get our first interview of the year this week. We did them last year and I think they worked out so let’s run it back. Here we go.

CALEB’S BUKAkE PARTY: 2-0

ONE:

I’d be fired as Commish if I didn’t start with Kareem Hunt so let’s do it. Through 2 games Hunt is the #1 RB in fantasy football and has scored 76.5 points – quick math shows an average of 38.25. AVERAGE of 38.25. The rookie has scored 5 touchdowns already and has over 350 all-purpose yards. Again, in just two games…. Now for the punchline – is this real or fake?

First let’s look at the Chiefs. Do they normally have good RBs? Yes, they’ve had very good running backs the last 15 years, using combinations of Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware since 2001. Is it crazy to think that Hunt is the next in line? Not at all. Second let’s look at Andy Reid

No no no, this Andy Reid

Closer, but still not him…..

Ahh there we go. Anyways Reid has historically had good RBs on his team. He coached the Eagles from 1999 to 2012 and has been with the Chiefs ever since. We saw that he had success with Charles and Ware, but how did he do in Philly? Oh, Deuce Staley, Brian Westbrook and Lesean McCoy? Yeah that’s pretty good. All of this is to say that Reid generally has productive RBs on his team. Based on Reid’s history and what we’ve seen from Hunt so far, this is REAL. 

TWO:

I’ll go to the other side of things this time and look at someone who has disappointed. Through two weeks, Doug Baldwin has scored 15.6 fantasy points on 10 catches for 107 yards. He’s the 40th ranked WR in our league behind guys like Brandon Coleman, Cordarrelle Patterson and Bennie Fowler III (?). Is this what we can expect going forward, or is this a fugazi?

Last year Doug Baldwin finished with 94 catches, 1100 yards and 7 TDs. That looks nice, but consider this: he had a three TD game vs the Patriots, which means he scored 4 TDs in the other 15 games. He was held without a score in 11 of those games, 4 of which came between weeks 4-7. The year before that, he had 14 TDs, but 11 of them came between weeks 2 and 6. Clearly he’s really streaky and his TDs are totally unpredictable.

Let’s also look at his yardage totals. In 2015 he had just 3 games with 100 or more yards. He also had 9 games with 60 or fewer yards that year. In 2016, the numbers are shockingly similar. Three games with 100+ yards, 10 games with 65 or fewer yards. While I think Doug Baldwin is good and I’d be happy to have him on my team, this is REAL. He’s going to have a number of these weeks where he just doesn’t do much. You just gotta take the good with the bad here. 

THREE:

Tyreek Hill falls somewhere in between Hunt and Baldwin. That’s not a bad name for a law firm… Anyways Hill had a huge week 1 (25 points), before thoroughly disappointing in week 2 with just 7 fantasy points. Once again I ask – which is real and which is fake?

Hunt has 14 targets through 2 games. The 7 targets is a pretty fair expectation, given the fact he averaged a little over 5 per game last year (83 in 16 games = 5.1 targets per). So what can we expect him to produce with those 7 targets a week? His week 1 total of 25 points was way too high and skewed by a 75 yard buttfuck by the Patriots defense. Without that score we’re looking at 12-13 points for Hill. This week was too low however, I fully expect him to put up more than 7.1 points a week.

Overall I think both weeks were real. I know that sounds cheap, but Hill is going to be a boom or bust type player in the mold of Desean Jackson and Mike Wallace. Yes, he’s “fasterthanya”, but NFL defenses are more than capable of corralling fast players (just ask Christian McCaffrey, more on him later). While he will definitely have some big 20 point games off the backs of big plays, he’s absolutely going to put up duds like this one. I think on average he’ll put up 14-16 per week, which falls right in line with the average of 16 per week he’s put up thus far.

MIXONS HERE HYDE UR GURLEY: 2-0

ONE:

We talked about the #1 RB in Hunt, so we may as well talk about the #2 RB Todd Gurley. Gurley’s here, Hyde your Mixon…. I mean Mixon’s Here Hyde ur Gurley.

Through 2 weeks Todd Gurley is averaging 25 points per game behind 120 yards rushing, 100 yards receiving and 3 total TDs. The consistency is great as he’s totaled 21+ points per week and scored a TD in both weeks. While he hasn’t done so well as a running back (3.7 YPC), he already had 8 catches on 10 targets this year. Despite how great he has been, I call bullshit here. This is a fugayzi, a fugazi, a wazzy, a woozy.

First, look at his opponents – the Colts and the Redskins are two of the worst defenses in the league. Through two weeks they’re #26 and #28 in yards allowed. Neither team has any playmakers and it’s not very surprising Gurley performed well. Second, let’s look at his upcoming schedule. He’s got two decent matchups vs the San Fran Buttholes and the Cowboys in week 3 and 4, but then things get real sour. The Rams play the Seahawks, Jaguars and Cardinals before a bye in week 8. They then have the Giants, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans and Arizona again during the fantasy regular season. In the last 9 weeks of the season he has only 1 “good” matchup (NO). Lastly, we have to assume that teams are going to start loading up the box against him. Are you gonna let Todd Gurley beat you, or Jared Goff? Easy decision for me and I think Gurley’s hot start is a mirage.

TWO:

Moving right along to another NFC West running back – Carlos Hyde. Hyde is averaging 7 yards per carry through 2 weeks while catching 9 passes on 12 targets (220 total yards rushing/receiving). He scored 21.8 points this week, while scoring 12.5 during week 1 and currently sits as a top 12 RB. I ask you again, is this real or fake? (Asking you, asking me, same thing). And again, I say this is FAKE. I do not think Carlos Hyde will keep this production up.

First, these receiving numbers are not sustainable. Hyde already has 9 catches on 12 targets – is he really gonna get 6 targets per game? He had 64 targets in his first three seasons, yes he’s on pace for 96 this season…..you do the math. Second, he can’t keep up this efficiency. Hyde is currently averaging 7 yards per carry, while his career high is 4.6. Like the Rams, the 49ers have a poor passing attack. Like Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde can expect to see many defenders in the box which will lower his YPC.

Defenders in the box, dick in a box, same thing

I could copy/paste Todd Gurley’s matchup concerns here, but I won’t. Instead I’ll point out that Hyde is always a quick starter  before fading away. His rookie year he had 7 carries for 50 yards and a TD in week 1. In 2015, he rushed for 210 yards and 2 TDs though 2 weeks. Last year he scored all 6 of his rushing TDs in weeks 1-5. But did he end up as a top 10 RB? No. In every year he’s cooled off substantially after a hot start and I think this year will be the same. Plus, we always have to worry about injury with him. FUGAZI.

THREE:

Joe Mixon is on the opposite side of the spectrum. While Gurley/Hyde have been awesome, Mixon has been BAD. The hyped rookie has been suffering in the Bengals’ terrible offense and is averaging fewer than 3 yards per carry. He also only has 4 catches on 4 targets through 2 games. The whole Bengals offense SUCKS, so what can we expect from Mixon going forward? Is this real, or fake?  

Like with Gurley and Hyde, I think this is a fugazi. I don’t think Mixon is this bad and I will tell you why. First, he looked much better in week 2 than he did in week 1. After a Jeremy Hill-esque statline to start his career (8 carries, 9 yards) Mixon put up 36 yards on 9 carries this week. Second, the Bengals are going to start phasing out Jeremy Hill. He’s averaging 3.6 YPC on just 12 carries and it’s very clear he’s no longer the lead back – 12 carries vs the 17 Mixon has. He may vulture a TD once in a while, but like my fantasy football team, he’s no real threat. I think Mixon will improve as the year goes on and prove that weeks 1 and 2 were a mirage.

THE FOURNETTEUATE FEW: 1-1

ONE:

Let’s keep it rolling with the top RBs and move on to Ty Montgomery Burns….

Like the character he’s named after, Montgomery has been excelllennntttt so far. The former WR who still wears a WR jersey has 29 carries, 89 yards rushing, 10 catches, 114 yards receiving and 3 TDs through two games. All of this adds up to the #4 RB in fantasy through 2 weeks. He’s put up 49 points so far and he’s on pace for 1,600 all-purpose yards and 24 TDs for the season. Things look good, but is this for realz? Yes, sadly for all of us this is for real. (Damn you Kenny)

While the YPC is really concerning, the volume is not. He’s getting 15 carries per game, which at a minimum gives you 3 points based on carries. He doesn’t have to worry about teams stacking the box (see above), so even if he averages 3 yards per carry (3.1 so far), he’s gonna rush for at least 40 yards – so his floor is 7 points if he does NOTHING in the passing game. Which brings me to the next point - his passing game usage. He’s getting over 5 targets a game (11 on the year) and he already has 10 catches through two weeks. As I said before – he’s a wide receiver turned running back. Even if they have trouble getting the run game going, it’s not like they’re taking him off the field for passing downs. Between volume, the Aaron Rodgers effect and his versatility, I don’t see Montgomery coming back to earth anytime soon.

TWO:

I’ve really only looked at RBs, but let’s look at one more in Leonard Fournette – the #5 RB in fantasy so far. Fournette came out HOT in week 1 with 110 total yards and a TD on 29 touches. The Jaguars were in control the entire game and we got a glimpse of the team they WANT to be. Week 2 was another story. While Fournette put up a healthy 16 points, the stats behind it don’t look as pretty. This time they were losing the entire game and Fournette got only 16 touches. This was a glimpse of what the Jaguars DON’T WANT to be. The Titans stacked the box and got an early lead, forcing them to throw. When they did throw, Fournette didn’t get much work – just 2 catches. Still, he had a good day for fantasy purposes and ranks #5 in RB scoring.

Despite the positive start, I think this is a fugazi. First - gameflow. The Jaguars are not as good as they looked in week 1 and it’s pretty clear they won’t be playing with a lead very often. When this happens Fournette loses work. When he doesn’t get the volume, his production drops drastically – derrr. Moving on, I don’t think this TD pace will continue. It’s a small sample size, but Fournette is on pace for 16 rushing TDs. We all know that isn’t sustainable, especially considering how bad the Jags offense has been. They’ve only scored 3 offensive TDs this year and Fournette has 2 of them. Again, just not sustainable. FUGAZI.

THREE:

Okay we’ll go to one wide receiver here – Dez Bryant. Dez was terrible in week 1, but redeemed himself in week 2 with 7 catches for 59 yards and a TD. He put up 15 fantasy points and now finds himself as wide receiver #20. So which week was real? The week one dud (2/43/0), or the week 2 performance (7/59/1)?

I’m gonna double down on my take from last week and say his week 2 performance is a FUGAYZI. Yeah the 7 catches were nice, but guess how many targets he needed to get there? SIXTEEN…. That’s the highest number of targets he’s had in a game since Dak became QB and higher than any game he’s had in the last three seasons. The last time he had a game with that many targets was in 2013. Nearly four years ago. In 2013 I was living with Dylan/Guy/Lamone, Lamone didn’t know Jaclyn, Kenny had just started dating Sawyer, Tieg wasn’t dating Sam (I don’t think), Guy and Keetz still lived in Boston and my hangovers didn’t last 3 days. That was a long time ago and I don’t think we’ll see any of those things again. This offense does not work that way and Zeke will never have that bad of a game again. FUGAZI.

WHAT IF HE SHOT ME IN THE FACE?: 1-1

ONE:

AJ Green has been horribly disappointing so far this season and is one of the major reasons I lost this week. When I drafted him in the second round, I did not draft 5 catches for 67 yards and 0 TDs this week. I drafted with the hope of much more than that. Through two weeks, Green hasn’t even scored 20 points combined – he sits at 19.1 with 9.9 in week 1 and 9.2 in week 2. While his on-pace numbers are fine (80 catches, 1,100 yards), I didn’t draft “fine”. I didn’t draft the word girls use when they’re pissed at you but just won’t admit it. I didn’t draft “it’s fine”.

Now for the one dollar question – is this real or is this fake? Although I’ve been negative so far, I have to be positive and say this is FAKE. AJ Green is not the number 27 wide receiver and he will not score fewer than 10 points every week this season. The logic is easy here, he’s just too good. The Bengals have had two AWFUL games to start the season and their offense hasn’t even scored a TD yet. They are the first team since 1939 to start off the season with 2 home games and fail to score a touchdown. 1939!!!! I don’t think any of our parents were even alive at that point. Based on that stat alone, I think AJ Green will be better going forward. He also complained a little this week and the squeaky wheel gets the grease as they say. 

TWO:

From one of the reasons I lost my week 2 matchup to THE reason I lost my week 2 matchup – Larry Fitzgerald. WHAT THE FUCK LARRY? After starting off the season with a passable 10.4 point week (6 for 74), Larry let me down like Dylan lets down his Tinder dates this week. Three catches for 21 yards….. against the COLTS!!! WHAT THE FUCK? I was expecting him to “GET UP IN THAT ASS LARRY”, but instead he scores 3.6 fucking points.

To the point - real or fake? Sadly, I think this is real. It’s clear that Carson Palmer is done. He will never be a good quarterback again and his wide receivers will suffer. He should just slunk out. The Colts had a very simple gameplan – stop Larry Fitzgerald. It worked pretty well as they almost beat the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett at QB. I think a lot of teams will continue this trend and Larry will have a very frustrating season. Apparently losing David Johnson hurts the wide receivers on that team too, FML.

THREE:

Cam Newton has been one of many disappointments to start the year. Through two weeks he has just 2 passing touchdowns and only has 30 yards rushing. The Panthers won their game 9-3 on Sunday. NINE TO THREE… That looks more like a Pink Whales lax score than an NFL game. While his completion percentage is pretty decent (59.6%), He’s averaging less than 200 yards per game and basically isn’t running the ball. Through 2 weeks he’s barely even a top 20 QB and has combined for 29.8 fantasy points.

As much as I don’t want to admit this, I think this is for real. Cam Newton has never been a great “NFL quarterback”. He’s been a serviceable NFL quarterback who was a great *fantasy* QB because of his rushing totals (48 career rushing TDs my Lord). Unfortunately for me, he doesn’t run the ball anymore. Thirty rushing yards through 2 games? Disgusting. He’s been injured too many times and as a result, the Panthers need to protect him. So now he’s a pocket QB…..greatttttt. To make matters worse, he lost Greg Olsen this week…..great, just great. Overall I am not very excited about Cam and I’m gonna need to start looking for a new QB.

JacksON Jacks-OFF: 1-1

Before I start I want to congratulate Kev on his week 2 performance. He paced the league in points this week and shut down the haters. It was a rough 2 week stretch to kick things off, but Kev came back strong this week. Touche my friend. 

ONE:

Alshon Jeffery was on my “do-not-draft” list heading into this year. His 3rd round price tag and injury history were just too much for me. Too Guy Ritch for my blood if you will. I looked smart after week 1 when he put up 7.3 points on 3 catches for 38 yards. My fear was substantiated - not drafting Jeffery was smart. Welp, after week 2 I look like a big ole idiot – 7 catches, 92 yards and a TD. He led the Eagles with 13 targets and scored 18.7 points. What’s the saying? Something about an egg on a face?

Anways what should we expect from Jeffery going forward? Was week 2 real, or was it a fugazi? It’s only been 2 weeks, so I have to go with my initial call here – FUGAZI. First, Jeffrey has a few tough matchups coming his way – the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals all have good corners. He also has Denver in week 9 and the Seahawks in Week 13. Second, I can’t ignore the week 1 result. When a guy’s floor is 3 for 38 I just can’t feel great about him. Last but not least is the obvious injury history. Do we really expect that he’ll play every game? Not me, not this guy.

TWO:

Up next is Michael Crabtree, the best receiver on the Raiders. Check that, the best receiver in fantasy football!!!! Believe it or not Crabtree is the #1 WR right now……A SORRY RECEIVER LIKE CRABTREE!!!

Through 2 games the Crab-people have 16 catches for 163 yards and 3 TDs. Those on-pace numbers amount to 120+ catches for nearly 1,300 yards. THAT IS ABSURD. The best part is Crabtree was drafted in the 4th round – two rounds after the sorry ass Amari Cooper. So is this real?

Like with Alshon, I have to go with my initial draft recap – this is real. While Amari Cooper is arguably more talented, Crabtree is the guy you want to own on the Raiders. He’s caught 6 passes for 80 yards in both games this year – if that’s his floor then I’ll take that over any receiver on my team. Also, three TDs in a game is insane and will pretty much win you the matchup any given week. This isn’t the first time it’s happened either – Crabtree caught 3 TDs in a game last year as well. He’s clearly a red-zone favorite of Derek Carr. Last but not least, I’ll cherry-pick a stat from ESPN – Derek Carr is 12/13 with 3 TDs when targeting Crabtree. They clearly have a good connection and Kev will rake it in all year long.

THREE:

From the #1 WR to the #1 TE, let’s take a look at Jason Witten. Jason Witten is the #1 TE in fantasy right now? Ohhhh yes he is. That’s what happens when all the “good” tight ends shit the bed week 1. While he’s been on Kev’s bench the entire season, that’s beside the point. He’s still the #1 TE in fantasy and it’s not that close – 7 points higher than Kelce, 10 points higher than Gronk. Through 2 weeks, Witten has turned 22 targets into 17 catches, 156 yards and 2 TDs. So will this continue?

No, this is a fugazi. There is just no way Jason Witten keeps this up. Is he really gonna get 176 targets this year? Is he really gonna have 1,200 yards receiving? Is he really going to score 16 TDs? No, no and no. This start is a fluke and I warn against anyone chasing those numbers……unless you’re the Greg Olsen owner. Fuck tight ends. That’s what she said. Anyways, I don’t think Witten will keep it up. He’s 35 years old and defenses will catch on. He’s also never really come close to those numbers in his career. Lastly, he’s had two good matchups for TEs. The Broncos aren’t very good against TEs and neither are the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed 12 catches for 100 yards and 2 TDs against TEs. Meanwhile, the Broncos have allowed 12 catches for 115 yards and a TD to TEs thus far. FUGAZI.