WEEK 2 - PART 1 — Protector Of The League

Sep 17

Sep 17 WEEK 2 - PART 1

WEEK 2 RECAPS: NEWS OR FAKE NEWS?

Welcome back for some more GWBL entertainment – Week 2 edition. This week we’ll have a segment I’ve dubbed “News or Fake News” and the premise is simple: I’ll make a statement about each team, give some supporting data and then decide whether it’s “News or Fake News”. It could be a player, the team in general or even the owner – anything goes. A lot of sites do these types of articles: “believe it or not”, “news or noise”, etc etc and we’ll do it here – a GWBL personalized version. We’ll go in opposite order of the standings and I think I’ll be able to get all teams covered today.

Sorry for everything (0-2):

Statement: After being the first auto-draft in league history, sorry for everything will also be the first team in GWBL history to go win-less.

Data: It hasn’t looked good for Tieg and he currently has the fewest points among any team in our league. The 210 he’s scored is just 105 per week and his -35 point differential on the season is 3rd worst. That looks even worse when you consider the fact he’s only 6th in points against – if he had the 299 points against that Lamone has (most), his point differential would be -89. That’s close to a full week’s worth of points and more than Guy scored in Week 2. So could it happen?

Verdict: This is of course – fake news. It’s nearly impossible to go win-less in a fantasy season. Fantasy football is a complete cluster fuck and every blind squirrel finds at least one nut. I’ve played in a lot of leagues over the years and I’ve never seen it, so I don’t think it happens here. Plus - this is Pure Taige we’re talking about. I bet he shows up this week and puts up 150 on his way to a W.

Tell Sloan I Said What Up (0-2):

Statement: Dylan’s going to have a tough year, courtesy of the post-championship hangover.

Data: From 2013-2017 we had 5 different champs: Tieg, Frader, Guy, Lamone and Keetz. Their finish in the season following their title run? 6th, 4th, 5th, 6th and 3rd, respectively. It doesn’t sound that bad, but those 5 champs have totaled just 1 playoff victory in the season following their title run. Just one W in elimination games. Not a good track record, so what do we make of this?

Verdict: I say this is news, but not in the way you might think. Dylan will have some struggles this year – he deserves it after going all Forrest Gump on my Lieutenant Dan last December….

That being said I still think Dylan makes the playoffs. There are definite concerns, but his team is just too talented to not go on a run. Saquon is the best RB in the NFL, Dalvin Cook is BACK, Fournette is a luxury at the FLEX and his WRs are talented. He also has two high upside TEs and a very good bench. I think Dylan will finish somewhere along the lines of the last 5 champs – most likely making the playoffs but going one-and-done.

HOW’S HOOTERS? KiTTLES? (0-2):

Statement: Lamone has killed George Kittle.

Data: After recording 88 catches for 1,377 yards and 5 TDs last year (225 fantasy points), Kittle is on pace for 88 catches for 864 yards and 0 TDs this year. Most importantly for us, he’s only on pace for 130 fantasy points which would be a HUGE dip in production. The 49ers offense has spread the ball around so much this season and 10 different players have caught passes already through 2 games. Teams are also keying on Kittle as seen in Week 2 when he recorded just 3 targets. He also hasn’t topped 54 yards in either game this season.

Verdict: Fake news. While Kittle may not return 3rd round value, he’s still going to finish as a top 5 TE. As you saw above, he’s still on pace for over 80 catches and nearly 900 yards. He’s not a big touchdown guy, but 5-6 is fair to expect. We all knew regression was coming after he broke NFL records last year and while Lamone may have overpaid on draft day, Kittle will be just fine.

MaKamaraca Great Again (1-1):

Statement: Drew Brees’ injury crushes Alvin Kamara’s value.

Data: This past week was one of Alvin Kamara’s worst statistical performances since the beginning of 2018. He totaled 60 all purposes yards on 13 carries and 1 catch (3 targets). That’s down from 169 total yards on 13 carries and 7 catches (8 targets) in Week 1. Kamara only had 45 rushing yards in Week 2 – in 2018 he only rushed for fewer than 45 yards in 4 of 16 games. Going further – Kamara only had 15 receiving yards in Week 2. In 2018 he only had 2 games with fewer than that. In terms of all-purpose yards – Kamara only had one game all last season with fewer than the 60 he had in Week 2. Oh yeah, he also hasn’t scored a TD yet this year after putting up 18 in 2018.

Verdict: I hate to say it Kev, but this appears to be factual news. The Saints offense looked horrible without Brees and I’m nervous for the prospects of all Saints players. Kamara will probably still get his 15-18 touches+targets every week, but his efficiency and TD rates are likely going to plummet. I could be wrong on this and Teddy Two-Gloves could be fine – or Taysom Hill could spark the offense – but until I see it I’m going to have concerns for all Saints skill players.

The Skid Row Nightcrawlers (1-1):

Statement: Baker Mayfield was overrated during draft season and will be a bust.

Data: Through 2 games Mayfield has scored just 30.2 fantasy points. That’s 24th highest in our league and behind a number of free agent scrubs like Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco and…. Wait for it…. ELI MANNING. Yes, the guy who just lost his job has scored more points than Baker. The Browns offense has been stuck in the mud and he’s thrown twice as many interceptions (4) as he has TD passes (2). If it weren’t for Odell Beckham’s freak athleticism on a 90 yard TD catch & run, Mayfield would have just 23 fantasy points in 2 weeks.

Verdict: I’m torn on this one, but I’m going to lean towards this being legit news *based on his draft slot. I said it in the recap and I still believe it – Mayfield was not worth a 6th round pick. Not when guys like Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady, Jared Goff and other comparable QBs were going in the double-digit rounds. I also think the Browns will disappoint in general this season. They’ve looked truly mediocre through two weeks and their offensive line stinks. I’m not going to go so far as to say he’s droppable, but he won’t live up to that draft slot.