Week 10 Recaps - Part 1 of 2 — Protector Of The League

I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst--if you can live with the worst--the good will always take care of itself.

I never get too attached to one deal or one approach...I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.

"The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead.

Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.

All of those are quotes from The Art of The Deal, written by your future President – DONALD F TRUMP. It’s been a week since the election and some people are still bitching about it. “He’s not my President” is one I’ve heard catching steam. Sorry to break it to you, but he is.

It was interesting to see the votes of the league surface during last week’s group chat. Frader and Keetz are clearly on the left, while everyone else is right. Bada bingggggggg - I’ll be here all week.

Jokes aside, the point here is that I wanted to discuss trades and negotiation in fantasy football. Just for fun, let’s look at this trade I made last week with a co-worker.

Me: I need a WR, Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson are killing me.

Brett: I need an RB, I never recovered from the Jamaal Charles pick.

Me: I have Christine Michael. He’s slumping a little lately, but he’s still a top 20 RB on a good team. How about Michael for Kelvin Benjamin straight up?

Brett: Deal, Kelvin is on my bench anyways.

Boom, done deal. I thought it was an extremely fair trade and so did Brett, the kid I work with. Well, after Sunday it wasn’t such a fair trade. Kelvin Benjamin had an okay game, scored about 9-10 points for me. He did fumble which is really frustrating, but oh well. (I think 5 of my WRs fumbled last week – Kelvin, Michael Thomas, Edelman – okay three.)

Overall I was a little disappointed. Kelvin might just not recover his rookie year form. Then I watched the Pats game. CJ Prosise dominated, while Christine Michael rode the bench. After that, I was thrilled (other than the bullshit outcome). I pawned off a guy who just lost his job. SELL HIGH! SELL HIGH! Two days later, Michael was waived. Sell high indeed.

The guy from work is a solid dude. I play hockey with him on the PwC team and know him pretty well. I felt really bad and apologized for the trade, but he had a positive spin on it. “Now I wait for him to get picked up by another team.” Guess what? The next day, the Packers sign him. The Packers who have no good running backs and the Packers who used a WIDE RECEIVER at RB for 2-3 weeks.

That is a prime example of how a trade can go from fair, to lopsided, to unfair, to potentially unfair in the opposite direction in a matter of days. Which leads me to this writeup. For this week’s writeup, I’m going to go through one trade that each team made and analyze who really won and who lost. There are many things that go into winning and losing. One cool part about trading is that the winner and loser can change in any given week. It can change from day to day. We just saw that with my example.

Sadly, there is barely any trading in our league. Most people are too afraid of looking bad if they lose on the trade. They don’t want to enable their enemy, or make a trade that may benefit someone else more than it benefits themselves. It’s kinda sad, because trading is the most fun part of fantasy football (other than the draft). The offer, the counter offer, the side text, the negotiation. It’s all a game and as Donald told us, “the real excitement is playing the game.”

So if you are too much of a baby to make a trade, I’ll look at some trades you offered, or a free agent pickup you had. After the long winded and disjointed intro, we can get going. (Disclaimer: I'm writing this at midnight after a 15 hour work day and coming off approximately 5 hours of sleep. It's not my best work).

WellJustTellUr MotherWeAteItAll (6-4):

I made one trade with Kenny, but I’ll go over that in Ken’s section. Just for fun, I’ll tell you about another trade I made in another league. I actually trade way more in my other leagues, no one in this league is any fun. Ken’s cool though, he actually trades. Anyways:

I gave up Frank Gore, Ty Montgomery and Delanie Walker

I received Jordy Nelson, James White and Charles Clay

I wanted Jordy Nelson really bad. It was week 7 at the time and I thought James White was coming off the PUP soon. Clay was just a roster evener, since I had Jimmy Graham as my TE. The other guy needed an RB and a TE, so Gore and Walker fit perfectly for him.

As you can tell, this trade went HORRIBLY for me. James White has yet to play and I dropped Clay right away. Jordy scored .5 points for me that first week. And I lost my week 7 matchup.

Meanwhile, Delanie Walker has scored 3 TDs since then and is the #2 TE in fantasy. He was the 18th TE when I traded him. Frank Gore has been even better, with 4 TDs, while slotting in as the #10 RB in fantasy. Ty Montgomery had 1 or 2 good weeks in there as well.

So I fucked up pretty bad, but you know what? I’ve gone 3-1 since then. So what? What's the point of this? The morale of the story is that a bad trade likely wont sink your season. Even if you lose in a trade, things may still work out. Take a chance, it’s just fantasy.

Marty Huggins (4-5):

Guy is one of the least active owners in our league. This can’t be right, but it looks like he’s only made 9 moves so far this year. No trades offered, no trades accepted. I swear this can’t be right, but I just went to his Tranlog and filtered for all adds from August 9th through Nov 16th. He has made NINE transactions all year. I have made 27. Lamone is the highest with 46!! Guy has literally made less than one add/drop per week and is still 5-5. Sometimes less is more.

Speaking of tranlog, remember when there was a rumor that Tone made out with a tranny at a bar or something? Or am I just making that up?

Broke Back Caleb (5-5):

Like Guy, Kev has also not traded with anyone this year. No friends.

I don’t know if I just can’t see these, but it doesn’t look like Kev has offered or declined any trades either. Is that true? I can see the trade I offered to Kev last week, but I can’t see any other trades in the Tranlog. As Commissioner, I figured I’d be able to see every trade offered, even if it was declined. Kev, have you offered or rejected any other trades? Group chat so I know you’re alive.

(Editor's Note: I just talked to Lamone and it seems like I just can’t see the trades that weren’t accepted. Well that’s disappointing.)

Let’s go off on a tangent here and discuss the trade I offered Kev last week. On Thursday, I offered him Michael Thomas and Rashad Jennings for Doug Martin. Kev replied quickly, which I appreciate. Nothing worse than when you offer someone a trade and they just let it sit there.

Anyway, he said he can’t deal Doug Martin. He’d stuck with him for 8-9 weeks of injury and had to see what he has. Well, what did he get? Martin had a decent game, scoring 14.3 points. The stat line was ugly though, 16 carries for 33 yards and a TD. Without that short TD, he’s down to 8 points. What did Kev give up? Michael Thomas sucked, scoring a measly 2 points. He did have 4 catches for 40 yards, but he fumbled twice. Oh well, Broncos D. Rashad Jennings did much better, scoring 15 points on 15 carries for 87 yards, plus 3 catches for 22 yards.

What do you think? Should Kev have made the trade? Rashad Jennings outscored Doug Martin and Michael Thomas is still a top 22 WR despite the bad day. So Kev should have made the trade......Not so fast my friend. Like an absolute idiot, I dropped Rashad Jennings before Sunday’s games. He had barely done anything this year and I was tired of it.

Jennings proceeds to have his best game of the year in week 10 and entered week 11 as a waiver add. I put a bid on him for $16 dollars, trying to recover my investment. Some asshole put the most random $17 dollar bid on him and got Jennings over me. Wanna know who that asshole was? Kevin OConnell.

Rather than make the trade, all Kev needed to do was wait for me to shoot myself in the fuckin foot and now he has Doug Martin and Rashad Jennings. Nice.

Harambe Pink Socked Ken (5-5):

FINALLY, a real trade made between members of this league that didn’t include me. What a novel idea, two people actually make a trade with one another. To be honest, I’m SHOCKED this happened. It’s well documented that Dylan and Ken aren’t exactly best friends. They aren't worst enemies, but things got tense at Middle Street. It's also well documented that Dylan is hard to trade with. He generally doesn’t answer the trade proposal and if he does, it’s usually something vague. “I’ll take a look”, “let me see”, or “I’ll look when I get home”. So much fun. Anyways, let’s look at the trade.

Ken received Demaryius Thomas, Mark Ingram and Christine Michael

Dylan received Todd Gurley, Jeremy Hill and Sammy Watkins

This was right before week 5, so we have a big sample size to work with here – 6 weeks.

What Ken Got: As it stands, Demaryius is the #14 WR, Mark Ingram is the #13 RB and Christine Michael is still a top 20 RB, despite the fact he was just waived by the Seahawks.

What Dylan Got: As it stands, Gurley is the 17th ranked RB, Jeremy Hill is the 19th ranked RB and Sammy Watkins has not played football at all this year.

So who won? Honestly, it’s really hard to tell. Considering the fact that Sammy Watkins hasn't played, I guess you could say Ken? Who would you rather have - Christine Michael/Demaryius/Ingram, or Gurley/Hill?

In 90% of leagues, I’d rather have Michael, Demaryius and Mark Ingram. Demaryius is a top 15 WR and the Broncos continue to get him the ball. Ingram is a top 15 RB and even though Tim Hightower has eaten some of his workload, he’s going to end the year as the #1 RB in New Orleans. Michael just got picked up by the Packers and if he starts for them, look out.

On the other hand, Gurley is one of the biggest busts in fantasy this year and you can never truly trust Jeremy Hill in any given week. He’s turned it around lately, but let’s not forget the 9, 11, 2 and 7 point games he had earlier this year. HOWEVER, since we award points per carry, you have to consider Gurley/Hill. Very tough decision.

Overall, I think both teams should be happy. Ken wanted to get rid of Gurley/Hill and Dylan wanted to acquire RBs. It was a win-win trade for both of them. Since week 5, both teams have the same record. They’re both 2-3. Sounds like a fair trade to me.

Zeka-A-Virus (5-5):

As you all know, Keetz and I were on the cusp of making a deal. On Thursday October 20th, right before week 7 started. I sent him a trade and he sent me an email in response. He offered me the following deal:

I would get Latavius Murray, Mike Evans, Carson Palmer

He would get Julian Edelman, Derek Carr and Jordan Howard

Ultimately the deal didn’t go through. I offered it on the website and he pulled his offer. Kind of sketchy, but I can’t force someone to make a trade. So how did it work out?

In week 7, he would have lost that trade. Derek Carr, Julian Edelman and Jordan Howard combined for a modest 29.6 points. Meanwhile, Murray, Evans and Palmer combined for 67.1. So while it was a little suspect that Keetz reneged on the deal, he made the right choice.

But what about week 8? In week 8, Carr/Edelman/Howard combined for 94.5 points – bukake. Keetz trio combined for 51, but only 20 of them came from Evans/Murray, the centerpiece of the trade. Keetz also lost in week 8, so that makes it look like he made a bad decision.

In weeks 9 and 10, Jordan Howard had a bye and rushed for 100 yards and 14 points. Carr had a down game in week 9, (10.6 points) followed by a bye. Edelman been disappointing – one bye and a game with 11.4 points.

Meanwhile, Evans has had a game with 34 and 8. Murray had 38 points and then a bye. Palmer had a bye and 19 points. I don’t think Palmer is on Keetz team anymore. So who would have won? Well, I think we both would have.

I'd have Latavius Murray and Mike Evans. He's have Carr, Howard and Edelman. Sounds like a fair trade to me. I guess Keets made the right call though. I'm about to have an epic collapse and he's on his way to the postseason.

Kens 20 Min Backroad Brisket (7-3):

Like most people in this league, Robby D has no trades to his name this year. He drafts his players, scours the waiver wire like a buzzard and builds his team organically. There’s nothing wrong with that, it’s clearly working for him Having said that, trading in fantasy sports is really fun. I think everyone should give it a try. Since we don’t have anything to work with here, let’s take a look at a funny trend. A trend where Robby D picks up everyone I fuckin drop on the waiver wire. Like a damn buzzard.

After a terrible showing in week 7, I dropped Jordan Howard. Wait, why did I drop Jordan Howard? Well, he scored 3.6 points that week and was seemingly losing his job to Kadeem Carey. His next two games were against the Vikings and then a bye. Plus, you never know who’s gonna get the carries when John Fox is the coach. Also, I had some bye weeks coming up and needed to fill roster spots. In a complete shock, Jordan Howard scored a season high 36 points against the best defense in the league - 2 days after I dropped him. Guess who picks him up the next Tuesday? Robby D. That one really hurt, but I owned Howard in another league, so I figured I’d be okay. Don’t like to put all my eggs in one basket.

What other league? The Westford league. The league I won last year, but am finishing in last this year. Yeah, I may get the Gabriel in that league after winning it last year. Honestly I’ve never had so much bad luck in my fantasy career. I lost two games by 1 point and have just had terrible, terrible, terrible matchup luck. So where does Robby D come into play? Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph was my TE in that league for 5 straight weeks. During that time, his point totals went 2, bye, 6.8, 4.4, and 6.4. I was tired of it, so I picked up Zach Ertz and dropped Rudolph. Guess who picks him up? Robby D. Guess who I was playing that week? Robby D. Guess what Rudolph does that week? 70 yards and a TD. Fuck you Robby D.